The major difference between Korea and Vietnam is in one case we stayed and in the other case we ran.

South Korea is also a case unto itself as we were there with significant international support.

Vietnam is probably a better place to look for historical guidelines.
We were somewhere we had no business, trying to dictate the outcome while dealing with a culture we did not understand. The result was a disaster for all parties involved.

So if these projections prove true it would be a fast transition.

But I primarily think this because the available evidence seems to indicate that our troop presence is inimical to political progress in Iraq.

Please present it. As I see it the reason we're there is that things could get much, much worse in Iraq than they have been so far (right now the trend is in the right direction although that could change), the consequences of things getting as bad as they might in Iraq are too awful to allow, and nobody (including all first-tier Democratic and Republican presidential aspirants) has any better idea.

I think the available evidence suggests that the Iraqis would be fighting amongst each other whether we were there or not. Our being there enables us to tamp down the level of carnage some.

Ah, so now I understand your point. You feel we should leave Iraq and let them fend for themselves.

Yes. But I primarily think this because the available evidence seems to indicate that our troop presence is inimical to political progress in Iraq.

I disagree.

And how long were our troops the de facto internal and external security forces in Korea, Germany and Japan, Alex?

For Germany, four years. For Japan, seven. Korea is probably more open to interpretation. But that's an irrelevant point, because the question isn't whether we are providing internal and external security at the moment, but whether we should.

And beyond South Korea, I'd mention that we've been occupying Germany and Japan even longer, by Alex's apparent standards.

Well, first off, I'm of the opinion that we shouldn't station troops in these countries. That said, our troops in Korea, Germany, and Japan are not the de facto internal and external security forces for these countries, whereas U.S. forces will be that for what appears to be another decade.

Mr. Qadir is actually optimistic that the Iraqi Security Forces will be able to handle most, if not all, of the direct security in Iraq by the end of this year.

I recall the Allawi government saying the same thing in 2004. Didn't actually happen.

And beyond South Korea, I'd mention that we've been occupying Germany and Japan even longer, by Alex's apparent standards.