The critical questions in my view are whether the worst case scenario is sufficiently worse than the status quo and how likely it is to come to pass. I believe that intelligent people can differ on this but I've got to admit that I find it nerve-wracking that those who favor immediate withdrawal rely so heavily on rosy predictions that I find hard to reconcile with the incentives in place.

One thing that almost everyone agrees is that things aren’t going to be noticeably better, especially on the all-important political front, next month.

Well, given that the Iraqi gov't is taking August off, that's pretty self-evident. Unfortunately, when you take into account that Austin & you are correct about the most important indicator - the gov't increasingly governing - it pretty much puts the lie to the surge having any net positive impact. It's nice that we've re-painted the living room, but the actual house is still on fire...