"I would say that personally and with great reluctance I would say that we probably do have to fight this war. I have simply watched what has gone on in Iraq too long and I think that what has been uncovered, provided in the British white paper and to a lesser degree the new CIA white paper documents far more of an active process of proliferation than people seem to realize."

a startling new development such as the assassination of the Ayatollah Sistani or a large sectarian attack leading to an all-out civil war could well compel our forces to withdraw in as little as three months. We need to start planning now for redeployment.

This is true. And the fact that we're still debating whether we should build this sort of contingency plan now, rather than having built it 3 years ago, is pretty damning evidence of a total lack of serious strategic thought (or competence for that matter) on the part of anyone involved in the Iraq war effort, from CENTCOM staff all the way up to the President.