BASRA UPDATE....Juan Cole on Basra:People are asking me the significance of the fighting going on in Basra and elsewhere. My reading is that the US faced a dilemma in Iraq. It needed to have new provincial elections in an attempt......

Sadr's an Iraqi nationalist who only ever had a queasy co-dependency with Teheran. If he "loses," Southern Iraq will almost certainly become a separatist, Shi'ite super-province with strong Iranian influence.

Too bad that means they'd control both our main supply road and only path of retreat to Kuwait.

I can’t wrap my Western mind around the idea of a cease-fire that’s simultaneously in effect and taking place during the midst of an all-out assault.

Its not that hard to understand, kimosabe. Maliki's militia (better known as the Iraqi army) launched an offensive against al-Sadr earlier this week. Sadr has controlled significant areas in Iraq.

Maliki sees a possibility if Obama wins that US support for his militia could evaporate, so he needs to try and eradicate his rivals while Bush still has his back.

al-Sadr can thus claim that they are being subjected to an un-provoked assault and are only acting in self-defense given the violation of the cease fire by Maliki.

Second, the Post report has the Strykers in Baghdad, not Basra.

Third, it's no surprise that Coalition Forces would provide air support in Basra as the Iraqi Army does not yet have those assets in any number.

There's a lot of confused crap out there on this operation, including what is probably propaganda from the Mahdi Army. I'm disappointed that you are adding to that confusion.

The numbers here are sketchy, so it’s hard to assess the scale of the problem

Indeed, and it seems to me to the advantage of those who would like the idea that things are going badly to spread, that they remain sketchy.

em>Although Sadr officials insisted on Thursday that the cease-fire was still in effect, Mr. Sadr has authorized his forces to fight in self-defense, and the battles in Basra appear to be eroding the cease-fire.

I can’t wrap my Western mind around the idea of a cease-fire that’s simultaneously in effect and taking place during the midst of an all-out assault.

What Sadr is playing here, is a game called "But... He started it".

There's this, also. we've seen this often enough before, where groups over there sue for peace to get what they could not obtain in battle.