Comments on: Is Democratic Race ‘Close’?

By: yetanotherjohn

yetanotherjohn — Thu, 22 May 2008 20:44:48 +0000

Michael,

That is why I put in the qualifier of whether there are 220 adults among the delegates who would make the switch.

By: Michael

Michael — Thu, 22 May 2008 19:13:22 +0000

how many times does Obama have to say that Iran is not a serious threat on one day and then say Iran is a grave threat the next day. At some point the adults in the democratic party say enough is enough, Obama is not ready to be president.

What exactly in the history of the Democratic party would make you think this is possible?

By: Floyd

Floyd — Thu, 22 May 2008 18:14:13 +0000

Hillarity Clinton shouldn't take this abuse.
I say she should run as a third party candidate!

By: yetanotherjohn

yetanotherjohn — Thu, 22 May 2008 17:48:41 +0000

The other side of this is the potential for change between now and the convention. Or to put it another way, how many times does Obama have to say that Iran is not a serious threat on one day and then say Iran is a grave threat the next day. At some point the adults in the democratic party say enough is enough, Obama is not ready to be president. The question is how many adults do you need to find to switch from Obama to Clinton. Assuming a 5% spread between them, that represents about 220 delegates of all sorts (super and non-super aren't locked into their results).

A more cynical way of looking at it is if Clinton can buy ~220 delegates belonging to Obama. How many ambassadorships are their?

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Thu, 22 May 2008 17:36:50 +0000

In a general election, would we say a 52% to 48% victory was close?

We would if it was similarly close in the Electoral College, I think. If it was an EC blowout, not so much.

Certainly, though, if the polls were showing it 52-48 in October, we'd think it was "close."

By: NoZe

NoZe — Thu, 22 May 2008 17:11:10 +0000

In a general election, would we say a 52% to 48% victory was close?