It’s the Economy, Stupid
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Dave Schuler | Friday, March 14, 2008 |
If you look at the following headlines from just the last 24 hours:
- “Most Economists in Survey Say Recession is Already Here”, Wall Street Journal
- “Southland Home Prices Tumble Fast”, Los Angeles Times
- “Betting the Bank”, Paul Krugman op-ed in NYT
- “Investors Flock to a Classic Refuge, Propelling Its Price Past $1000”, New York Times
it’s hard to conclude that things aren’t going somewhat wobbly with our economy or, at the very least, very considerable efforts are being made to convince us that’s the case.
Ray Fair’s econometric model of quadrennial election results, based on just three variables, growth, inflation, and “good news”, provides empirical support for the 1992 Clinton campaign slogan, “It’s the Economy, Stupid”. Given the sagging economy or the perception of a sagging economy and barring some calamity it will be that much more difficult for a Republican candidate in November.
Note that I’m not making any observations here about the objective capability of either of the prospective Democrats to do anything about the economy, merely suggesting that we keep our eyes on the economy as an indicator and that, as I noted in my post on the economy this morning, perceptions matter.
About the Author: Over the years Dave Schuler has worked as a martial arts instructor, a handyman, a musician, a cook, and a translator. He's owned his own company for the last thirty years and has a post-graduate degree in his field. He comes from a family of politicians, teachers, and vaudeville entertainers. All-in-all a pretty good preparation for blogging.
He has contributed to OTB since November 2006 but mostly writes at his own blog, The Glittering Eye.
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Good thing that Saint McCain has the non-existent economics textbook written by Alan Greenspan.
The first candidate to bring up the negative influence of hedge funds on the economy and then keeps beating the drum will have a winning theme. Any of the three can jump on this and work it with credibility.
I doubt it, Steve. Regardless of the merits, it's one of those “eyes glaze over” subjects.
I believe there's fertile ground for a politician who wishes to point out the combination of a) high gas prices, b) high oil company profits, and c) federal subsidies to said oil companies. I'm surprised none of the candidates has made this part of their campaign theme yet.
I have to agree with Dave that hedge funds are not an attention-grabber for most Americans. Whether or not it should be is another question.
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