Comments on: James Hamilton on the 2008 Oil Shock

By: Michael

Michael — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 14:56:16 +0000

Finally, something I agree with ZR on.

That's historically been a cause for concern, or at the very least a good enough reason to re-evaluate your position on the subject.

By: Dave Schuler

Dave Schuler — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:43:33 +0000

Consumption is down, production is up.

? Could you provide support for this assertion? My understanding is that global consumption is up and global production is flat.

By: Economics Links–06.09.08 » The American Mind

Economics Links–06.09.08 » The American Mind — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 09:30:43 +0000

[...] James Hamilton think the U.S. might face an oil-shock recession. [via Steve Verdon] [...]

By: Steve Plunk

Steve Plunk — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 03:22:12 +0000

A single announcement by an oil analyst in New York led to Friday's panicked buying. If this is not time for regulators to step in I don't know what a good time would be. With lightning fast trades, low margins, a weak dollar, and excess funds fleeing to oil it will take something substantial to stop this cycle.

Consumption is down, production is up. Market fundamentals point to lowering prices but irrational forces are pushing prices higher.

Those worried about our economic future should blame oil first and foremost. Those who can do something about it need to get their ass in gear.

By: DC Loser

DC Loser — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 02:12:37 +0000

Finally, something I agree with ZR on. This price spike is caused by speculators fleeing the mortgage, bank and capital markets and chasing commodities as the hot investment of the moment. But I don't see consumption going down in the near term enough to pop the bubble. The government does have to have greater scrutiny over the futures markets and close the loophole for allowing banks and investment firms to engage in large commodities trades.

By: Dave Schuler

Dave Schuler — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 00:55:57 +0000

Where is George Soros' money in all of this?

My understanding is the Mr. Soros is primarily a currency trader rather than a commodities trader. I suspect he's taking a short position on the dollar.

Uncertainty about the future is good for currency traders.

By: Zelsdorf Ragshaft III

Zelsdorf Ragshaft III — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 00:49:13 +0000

Speculation is the leading cause in the raise in the price of oil. Not any market factor. This is a bubble, just like the housing market. That balloon will soon burst as people stop recreation use of their vehicles and fuel use goes down. Those who have futures investments will lose a fortune. Government needs oversight on the futures market. Where is George Soros' money in all of this?