News for the Republican party has only gotten worse and worse since August. These indictments and investigations against their various leadership in the House, Senate and White House are going to result in the most visible emblems of the GOP being literally on trial for criminal behavior during the hottest part of the '06 campaign season. No way this stuff will be wrapped up before then. The wind will not be at their backs in November of '06.

Ensign is very much vulnerable as is any Republican polling in the neighborhood of 50% or lower right now. All of these Senate races that would usually be considered close but safe are up for grabs. Either the Dems will pick up only 2 seats (PA & OH are as in-the-bag as they come) or it will be a sweep of 6 or more Senate pick-ups as these marginal guys like Ensign get pushed over the edge by GOP scandals and anger over the war. It all depends how how strong this wind blows. AZ, MO and TN are all strong chances for Dem pickups on top of OH & PA. RI will be a pickup if Chafee is defeated in the primary, which is pretty much up to Grover Norquist. ME is only safe right now because the Dems haven't found a challenger. Look at the polls on all of these states and races. There's big trouble a-brewin'.

It's Carter's to lose. A generic, competant Democratic candidate of a stature similar to Ensign's with good fundraising could undoubtably knock Ensign down. The question is whether Carter can meet that middlin' standard or will he just be a bungling amateur who can't get started. The best comparison with Carter at the moment is probably George W. Bush right before he ran for Governor. Everything is good on paper, he has the name of his one-term Daddy and can get all the money he needs. The question is whether he's really equal to the opportunity before him.

With a Carter in office, I would be concerned to.