Latest Battleground Polls
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James Joyner | Tuesday, July 27, 2004 |
Ron Gunzburger reports,
In Florida, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll places President Bush in the lead in this key battleground state. The numbers: Bush-50%, Kerry-47%. In a three-way race, it becomes Bush-50%, Kerry-46%, Nader-1%. Two new Ohio polls point to different leaders. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll places Kerry in the lead by a 51% to 45% vote in a two-way race (or Kerry-48%, Bush-43%, Nader-5% in a three-way race). By contrast, the latest Columbus Dispatch poll shows Bush-47%, Kerry-44%, Nader-2%. Bush carried Ohio by 4% in 2000. In Iowa, the new Des Moines Register poll shows a very close race. The numbers: Bush-46%, Kerry-45%, Nader-2%. In Missouri, the new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows a tied contest. Bush and Kerry have 48% apiece in a two-man race … or 47% each in a three-way race (with Nader at 3%). However, the new St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Research2000 poll there, gives Kerry a 48% to 45% lead in the state (or a 47% to 45% lead, with Nader at 2%, in a multi-candidate contest). Moving west, the new Las Vegas Journal-Review/Mason-Dixon poll of Nevada voters gives the lead to Bush at 46%, Kerry at 43%, and Nader at 4%.
The steady tightness of the race continues to amaze me. Neither candidate seems to get the traditional “bounce” from key events or big news. It’s also notable that Nader is getting less support than the margin of error in most of these polls.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
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