Group 1 is those who will stay home because of the VP pick. They won't vote for your opponent, but they won't vote for you. Note that this could be they were going to vote for your opponent, but now go neutral. Most likely this is people who you could have had.

Group 2 is those who will vote for you because of your VP pick. This is the theory behind the regional or special interest choice of VP.

Group 3 is those who will not vote for you whomever your VP pick is.

Group 4 is those who will vote for you whomever your VP pick is.

You ignore group 3 and 4. You compare the size of group 2 to the group 1 and make your decision.

Cheney jokes about doing his job on the ticket and delivering Wyoming for Bush. I suspect that when all is said and done, Cheney was a wash in 2000 and 2004. He didn't add many votes and didn't lose many votes. The really virulent Cheney haters have BDS such that they wouldn't have voted for Bush anyway.

So that was a "safe choice" aka a 'do no harm' choice.

Lieberman would be a poor choice because he wouldn't add many votes (could he turn CT?) but would likely turn off as many republicans because of Lieberman's liberal-ness in all but the war.

The republicans and democrats chose their conventions as 'offensive' weapons. Going to places that they don't normally win but have a chance of turning. I suspect that the VP pick will be the same for the GOP except for Rudy. Rudy will likely pick a combination regional/special interest candidate to shore up the GOP wing while he himself goes after the middle. The rest of the GOP pack would likely do the opposite and pick a candidate who could turn a state (e.g. Wisconsin or Ohio) that would be worthwhile to turn (aka not Wyoming) and doable (e.g. Not Texas or Mass.) CT's 7 EV isn't a big enough prize and isn't 'doable' enough to pick Lieberman.

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Someone ought to make Bill Kristol lie down. A few weeks ago he was feeling confident about GOP prospects in 2008.

Feeling confidant? Kristol sounded like he was willing to wager his first born. He really is kind of a lunatic despite his lofty positions.

I think Dems would absolutely LOVE to see Lieberman as a VP candidate. Joe did a better job than Lynne Cheney in making Dick look warm & cuddly. And I'm sure his "War all of the time" philosophy would go over real well with the general public.

Kristol lives in some conservative fantasyland. The sad part is, people pay for and belive his tahe.