Comments on: Lower Economic Growth http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/lower_economic_growth/ Online Journal of Politics and Foreign Affairs Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:04:11 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: tom p http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/lower_economic_growth/comment-page-1/#comment-996247 tom p Tue, 24 Mar 2009 20:36:55 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=33785#comment-996247 File this one under "Dog Bites Man". File this one under "Dog Bites Man".

]]> By: odograph http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/lower_economic_growth/comment-page-1/#comment-996232 odograph Tue, 24 Mar 2009 19:59:40 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=33785#comment-996232 Well, economic forecasts are BS. That's the starting point. After that, the administration gets to pick a number to put out there. Normally they'll pick an optimistic one, but not totally ridiculous. That's just the way it works. But I can tell you one thing ... when talking 2015 to 2019 no one knows. You CAN make a safe bet that trends will regress to mean, but being safe doesn't mean you know the confidence, whether the downturn will drag, or if some tech revolution will drive a new economy. Well, economic forecasts are BS. That's the starting point. After that, the administration gets to pick a number to put out there.

Normally they'll pick an optimistic one, but not totally ridiculous. That's just the way it works.

But I can tell you one thing ... when talking 2015 to 2019 no one knows. You CAN make a safe bet that trends will regress to mean, but being safe doesn't mean you know the confidence, whether the downturn will drag, or if some tech revolution will drive a new economy.

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