I'd say offhand the last several years of promptings from the White House.

In that case we can be pretty sure it was something else.

John Burgess says that this weekend's shake up of the Saudi government is a move in the right direction and constitutes 'major reform'. Then again, John has been pretty half-glass-full on the bane of civilization that is the Saudi Kingdom......

As anything in the KSA, it's the result of a combination of factors, some more important than others.

The first thing, I believe, is that the King has now been in office for about five years. That's given him a chance to consolidate his coalitions. It's also given him time to collect the record of missteps and errors of the opposition.

As a new king, he wasn't willing (or able) to just announce major reform. He had too many waiting and watching for anything that looked questionable. They were simply waiting to pounce. (If you wish to take lessons from this and apply them to certain reactions to a new Obama administration, please feel free to do so!)

In the time since he ascended to the throne, the country has gone through a series of terrorist attacks, most of which have been thwarted. The anti-terror activities have succeeded in chasing the Saudi offices of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula out of the country to join with and regroup in Yemen. He's managed to clear most of the mosques of extremist preachers--some through firing, some through jail or detention. These moves have undercut whatever threat the religious zealots might have represented.

The oil boom brought in enough money to enable the government to undertake significant developmental projects and to boost employment. While the current oil bust has pushed the country into deficit spending, there's enough of a surplus to enable the government to avoid the worst-case problems that are soon to confront Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and non-OPEC Russia. He's got a cushion now that he didn't have earlier.

Conservative religious authorities have managed to shoot themselves in the foot and thus weaken their own positions. Whether it was a fatwa condemning Mickey Mouse or one that seemed to authorize the killing of TV broadcasters for bringing down social and religious values, the religious leadership had been hurt. Their misery was enhanced by boneheaded moves by the religious police that ended up pissing off moderate Saudis and even conservatives who didn't see what was objectionable in a given case. The outward injustice of, for instance, 'Qatif Girl' (sentenced to jail and flogging for being with an unrelated male, but then gang-raped) disturbed the average Saudi as much as it disturbed those in the West.

Somewhere along the line, the King calculated that a tipping point (sorry) had been reached and that a little shove by him would push them out of center stage.

I think the least of the factors would have been the Obama election, though it might have played some role. Saudi Arabia has been mostly immune to US (or other Western) criticism as it knows that the US cannot do anything truly drastic against it. The consequences of drastic action would rebound on the US nearly as severely as they'd affect the KSA.

One aspect of Western opinion that might count is the upcoming UN review of Saudi human rights practices. The papers that feed into the review are mostly in and they're not favorable to the Kingdom--how could they be? This will cause embarrassment to the government, particularly because it is on the UN Human Rights Committee. The shortfall between what is promised and what is delivered will be apparent to everyone... including other Saudis.

The most encouraging things about these changes, sweeping as they are, is that most Saudis think they are only the beginning. They're anticipating big changes later this year. Women's driving? Could be. Further rapprochement with the Shi'a? It could happen.

I think it definitely worth watching.

I'd say offhand the last several years of promptings from the White House.

Or maybe, like the Supreme Court, the Saudis follow the election returns.

"I've been climbing this mountain for a day and a half, and only just now got to the top".

Maybe, I don't pay enough attention to KSA to know if they've been climbing that mountain for years or not, but it certainly seemed like they've just been sitting around the fire at base camp talking about the summit.

I'd say offhand the last several years of promptings from the White House.

They've been getting those prompts for a good long time, and haven't shown much desire or willingness to implement significant change up until now.