Comments on: McCain Surging, Romney Retreating, Giuliani Unscathed

By: Laura Cap

Laura Cap — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 13:59:50 +0000

The success of Giuliani's game plan to "enter" the race in Florida, was contingent on different Republicans winning in the early primaries so there was no clear winner before Florida, the state he expects to win. So, I don't see why he should be criticized for his campaign strategy now. Had the same Republican won the early states, it would have been questionable but right now, it appears to me, that everything is going as planned.

By: markm

markm — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 11:19:17 +0000

"Not only was Romney born and raised there, his dad, George, was the state’s governor from 1963-1969. Yet, the two most recent polls show him in a statistical tie with Arizona’s John McCain and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas."

Blah blah blah...dude hasn't lived here for 30 or 40 years. I don't know what kind of carry over there is from a 30 year hiatus from residency...yeah, he's got a known name but other than that he's rank and file.

By: Key

Key — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 09:45:39 +0000

The thing about the early states is that they are an infinite sink of time. Mitt Romney did 255 townhalls in NH! He has not visited many of the other states because he spent his time in 2 states.

Rudy is given a pass because he leads FL by 5%, CA by 9%, NY and NJ by >20%, CT by 30%, PA by 15%, etc. The media don't want to call him the frontrunner, but he is.

Mitt is toast. Every poll shows him heading in the wrong direction, peaking in November.

Huck has been the dark horse who snuck on the scene, but whose record has been unmasked only starting in early December. Fred Thompson worked him over in tonight's debate, and this will hurt him all across the country.

Mccain can manage 20% of the population, but he is too unpopular to be the nomination. He was passed over 8 years ago, and has mostly made himself less popular since then with campaign finance, the Gang of 14, etc., etc.

By: anjin-san

anjin-san — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 02:10:39 +0000

Interesting that rough, tough Rudy, who will keep us all safe from terrorists, seem to lack the backbone to get in and mix it up a bit.

Allocating resources is one thing, blowing off entire states one after another when you are putting yourself forward to be President of the United States suggest that one is not really fit to lead.

By: Rob M

Rob M — Fri, 11 Jan 2008 01:36:16 +0000

Well, my take for Rudy is he is getting a pass because his national poll numbers are still at the top and the excuse "i didn't even try" some how is still good for the press. However if Rudy takes a loss in Florida on the 29th, then I think he may not be able to recover. He has been waiting for those big states and spending a ton of time in Florida. A loss there dooms him.

And the truth is only a small number of delegates have been awarded so far. So he is not really behind McCain and Romney yet.

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 23:59:54 +0000

Why is it you delete anyones response who supports a candidate?

I delete off-topic posts. The fact that a post mentions Mitt Romney is not an invitation to paste in random messages of support for him.

If you'd like to make a direct response to some point I made about Romney in the post, though, feel free.

By: CLACKEY

CLACKEY — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 23:10:07 +0000

Why is it you delete anyones response who supports a candidate?

By: Jed Merrill

Jed Merrill — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:31:12 +0000

Comment in violation of site policies deleted.

Those wishing to buy candidate advertising should send inquiries to otb@blogads.com

By: Michael

Michael — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:12:07 +0000

That was in reply to Clackey, who's post was subsequently deleted. It wasn't that bad though, more good for a laugh than anything I thought.

By: Michael

Michael — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:11:00 +0000

Open your mouths and talk to your friends and neighbors. Talk to everyone you know and tell them how great Mitt is!!!

Yeah, because that's working out sooo well for Ron Paul.

By: CLACKEY

CLACKEY — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:04:25 +0000

Comment in violation of site policies deleted.

Those wishing to buy candidate advertising should send inquiries to otb@blogads.com

By: yetanotherjohn

yetanotherjohn — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:47:54 +0000

The math is easy to do. Michigan is January 15th (right around the corner). South Carolina is January 19th.

If Romney wins in Michigan, then he will have half a week to try again in South Carolina. If he fails in Michigan, then what is his rational for coming from behind and winning in South Carolina?

Take it a step further. The two most recent polls in MI has him -1 vs Huckabee and + 4 vs McCain or +2 vs Huckabee and - 9 against McCain. Not the best situation, but at least a potential to win. The polls are have him second in both cases, but not an impossible gap to close.

Now play the game out further. If Romney loses to McCain and Huckabee, then it is pretty hard to see him anything but toast. If Romney takes another second, he can probably last until SC, but absent a miracle isn't likely to go further.

If Romney drops out, the Thompson has to bang the drum as the conservative candidate who you aren't mad at.

If McCain wins, then he starts the dominoes falling for an easier and easier run to the convention.

What a political year.