McCain’s Giuliani Bounce
 |
James Joyner | Sunday, February 3, 2008 |
John McCain has been the primary beneficiary of Rudy Giuliani’s exit from the race, the latest Gallup national tracking poll shows.
John McCain continues to be the primary beneficiary of Rudy Giuliani’s recent exit from the Republican race for president. The percentage of Republican primary voters nationwide favoring McCain for the nomination rose from 39% in interviews conducted Jan. 29-30, to 44% in Jan. 30-Feb. 1 polling. Neither Mitt Romney nor Mike Huckabee picked up any additional support.
As a result, McCain now holds a 20-percentage point lead over Romney in the Jan. 30-Feb. 1 Gallup Poll Daily tracking results. It is McCain’s largest lead since he assumed the front-runner position following the New Hampshire Republican primary.
It stands to reason that Giuliani’s departure and subsequent endorsement would boost McCain. They were, after all, competing for the same constituency: non-evangelical national security voters. There really isn’t enough polling out there to show this definitively, though, and Gallup isn’t making their crosstabs available; a five point bounce could be attributable to his own win in Florida, a reaction to the debates, or a mere fluke.
The RealClearPolitics national averages (about the only concise way to gauge Super Tuesday’s 22-state, all-over-the-map primaries) show only three post-Florida, post-Guiliani polls. Two show an overwhelming advantage for McCain while the other shows a tie:
Let’s look at the tracking (which includes two pre-Florida surveys):
McCain and Romney are both surging, as one would expect in a race that has narrowed into a two-man contest. McCain’s trend is steeper, though, and the gap is widening.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
Follow James on FriendFeed | Twitter | Digg
- McCain’s Giuliani Bounce
- Obama Gets ‘Big Bounce’ in Gallup Poll
- McCain Lead Growing in New Hampshire
- John McCain the Comeback Codger?
- If The Election Were Held Today . . .
- McCain Leads Giuliani in New York
- Obama Has Huge Lead in Another Poll
- Michigan Primary Results: Romney, Clinton Win
- Ron Paul at 38 Percent in Rasmussen Poll
- McCain and Clinton Get Huge New Hampshire Bounce
- Nathalie Blanchard Facebook Smile Leaves Her Depressed
- Glenn Beck, Community Organizer
- OTB Latenight – Cherry Poppin’ Daddies
- Hacked Climate Scientists Emails Reveal Truth
- Obama, the Recession, and Polls
- Giuliani Running for Senate, Not Governor
- OTB Latenight – The Jesus & Mary Chain
- Fox Fake Crowd Videos
- Congress to Investigate Fake Districts
- Douthat Blogging Again
- PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts linked with The Super-Duper (Perhaps Even Wuper!) Toast-o-Meter
Without huckabee siphoning off the social conservatives -romney would be a shoe-in
