Comments on: MEDIA ROUNDUP http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/media_roundup/ Online Journal of Politics and Foreign Affairs Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:01:35 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Moe Lane http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/media_roundup/comment-page-1/#comment-11856 Moe Lane Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4932#comment-11856 (Shrug) <i>If</i> this stays a three-person-or-more race, and <i>if</i> the second and third place person keep consistently pulling in delegates, Kerry is going to have problems bringing in the delegates he needs to win outright; if the convention has to resolve the primary, much beomes possible. I can't believe that the Clark, Dean and Edwards campaigns haven't done the math on this, yet... (Shrug) If this stays a three-person-or-more race, and if the second and third place person keep consistently pulling in delegates, Kerry is going to have problems bringing in the delegates he needs to win outright; if the convention has to resolve the primary, much beomes possible. I can't believe that the Clark, Dean and Edwards campaigns haven't done the math on this, yet...

]]> By: James Joyner http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/media_roundup/comment-page-1/#comment-11857 James Joyner Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4932#comment-11857 It's true that they pull delegates. But if Kerry wins virtually every state and the others divide the rest of the delegates, Kerry wins. And I can't imagine that either Edwards or Clark will give in to let the other win unless they're forced out by lack of money or momentum. Another 300 votes or so for Edwards in Oklahoma would have killed Clark's campaign; but now he can justify hanging on. It's true that they pull delegates. But if Kerry wins virtually every state and the others divide the rest of the delegates, Kerry wins. And I can't imagine that either Edwards or Clark will give in to let the other win unless they're forced out by lack of money or momentum. Another 300 votes or so for Edwards in Oklahoma would have killed Clark's campaign; but now he can justify hanging on.

]]> By: Moe Lane http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/media_roundup/comment-page-1/#comment-11858 Moe Lane Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4932#comment-11858 "But if Kerry wins virtually every state and the others divide the rest of the delegates, Kerry wins." If it's a succession of two-man races, sure: Kerry just needs to get almost twice as many voter as the second place guy to hit 61% (which is roughly the overall percentage of pledged delegates needed to ensure the nomination on the first ballot). Three-man races where at least 2 and 3 hit the 15% cutoff (which has apparently happened in three states so far, although I don't know why that's been listed as happening in AZ)... and Kerry has to get almost twice as many votes as the second and third place people <i>combined</i>. The first is easy enough, the second much harder - and of the seven states that Kerry's won, so far he's had to split the delegates three ways in three of them. Again, I don't why he'd have to in AZ, but apparently he did. It'll all probably resolve itself into the traditional two-man race fairly soon, but it's not outside the range of possibility that it won't. "But if Kerry wins virtually every state and the others divide the rest of the delegates, Kerry wins."

If it's a succession of two-man races, sure: Kerry just needs to get almost twice as many voter as the second place guy to hit 61% (which is roughly the overall percentage of pledged delegates needed to ensure the nomination on the first ballot). Three-man races where at least 2 and 3 hit the 15% cutoff (which has apparently happened in three states so far, although I don't know why that's been listed as happening in AZ)... and Kerry has to get almost twice as many votes as the second and third place people combined. The first is easy enough, the second much harder - and of the seven states that Kerry's won, so far he's had to split the delegates three ways in three of them. Again, I don't why he'd have to in AZ, but apparently he did.

It'll all probably resolve itself into the traditional two-man race fairly soon, but it's not outside the range of possibility that it won't.

]]> By: Moe Lane http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/media_roundup/comment-page-1/#comment-11859 Moe Lane Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4932#comment-11859 "which has apparently happened in three states so far, although I don't know why that's been listed as happening in AZ" Excuse me: four, if you count Iowa. "which has apparently happened in three states so far, although I don't know why that's been listed as happening in AZ"

Excuse me: four, if you count Iowa.

]]> By: dw http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/media_roundup/comment-page-1/#comment-11860 dw Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4932#comment-11860 As an expatriate Okie, I had a good idea that it was going to be Clark-Edwards-Kerry, and that Kerry was going to win Tulsa and that was it. I was wrong on the latter statement, but I wasn't that far off. Kerry: Tulsa, Oklahoma City, rural NW Clark: Stillwater, Norman, Lawton, rural W & N Edwards: West OKC suburbs, Tulsa suburbs, Muskogee, rural S & SE I'll blog more about this later, but despite Oklahoma's automatic-for-the-GOP record since '64, these results are downright terrible for Kerry. Oklahoma Democrats come in two flavors, conservative and Dixiecrat. They are the right end of the balance of the Democratic party and are the kinds of people the Dems need to get on their side if they want a broad-based win. Kerry finished third behind the pretty boy and the general with these people. If you know Oklahoma, you'd know that if Kerry can only win Tulsa/OKC he's going to have trouble courting conservative Dems -- and conservative-leaning moderate independents. As an expatriate Okie, I had a good idea that it was going to be Clark-Edwards-Kerry, and that Kerry was going to win Tulsa and that was it. I was wrong on the latter statement, but I wasn't that far off.

Kerry: Tulsa, Oklahoma City, rural NW
Clark: Stillwater, Norman, Lawton, rural W & N
Edwards: West OKC suburbs, Tulsa suburbs, Muskogee, rural S & SE

I'll blog more about this later, but despite Oklahoma's automatic-for-the-GOP record since '64, these results are downright terrible for Kerry. Oklahoma Democrats come in two flavors, conservative and Dixiecrat. They are the right end of the balance of the Democratic party and are the kinds of people the Dems need to get on their side if they want a broad-based win. Kerry finished third behind the pretty boy and the general with these people. If you know Oklahoma, you'd know that if Kerry can only win Tulsa/OKC he's going to have trouble courting conservative Dems -- and conservative-leaning moderate independents.

]]> By: Insults Unpunished http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/media_roundup/comment-page-1/#comment-11861 Insults Unpunished Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4932#comment-11861 <strong>Post-Mortem On Big Tuesday Primaries</strong> James Joyner has a good roundup of reaction from a variety of pundits. Most interesting observation to me: Clark is acting as a spoiler for Edwards by denying him a straight shot at Kerry when Clark himself has little chance.... Post-Mortem On Big Tuesday Primaries
James Joyner has a good roundup of reaction from a variety of pundits. Most interesting observation to me: Clark is acting as a spoiler for Edwards by denying him a straight shot at Kerry when Clark himself has little chance....

]]> By: PoliBlog http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/media_roundup/comment-page-1/#comment-11862 PoliBlog Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4932#comment-11862 <strong>Post-Primary Round-Up</strong> James Joyner has a good round-up of the punditocracy's takes on yesterday's results.... Post-Primary Round-Up
James Joyner has a good round-up of the punditocracy's takes on yesterday's results....

]]> By: Ministry of Minor Perfidy http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/media_roundup/comment-page-1/#comment-11863 Ministry of Minor Perfidy Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4932#comment-11863 <strong>OTB Primary Roundup</strong> James at Outside the Beltway has a comprehensive roundup of commentary about yesterday's primaries and caucuses. Lots of good "what does it all mean" to chew on. OTB Primary Roundup
James at Outside the Beltway has a comprehensive roundup of commentary about yesterday's primaries and caucuses. Lots of good "what does it all mean" to chew on.

]]> By: Matthew J. Stinson | weblog http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/media_roundup/comment-page-1/#comment-11864 Matthew J. Stinson | weblog Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4932#comment-11864 <strong>Super Seven Fallout</strong> James Joyner looks at the media's attempt to sort out a "number two" candidate from the Super Seven primaries. I guess I'm going with the "Clark's not dead, but Edwards did better" line. If I recall correctly, Edwards was a... Super Seven Fallout
James Joyner looks at the media's attempt to sort out a "number two" candidate from the Super Seven primaries. I guess I'm going with the "Clark's not dead, but Edwards did better" line. If I recall correctly, Edwards was a...

]]> By: Admiral Quixote's Roundtable http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/media_roundup/comment-page-1/#comment-11865 Admiral Quixote's Roundtable Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4932#comment-11865 <strong>Mini-Super Tuesday Results</strong> Kerry had a big night, winning five of the seven states. Edwards showed his Southern strength and easily won South Carolina. In a surprise showing, Wesley Clark narrowly beat out Edwards for Oklahoma with Kerry a distant third.... --- Mini-Super Tuesday Results
Kerry had a big night, winning five of the seven states. Edwards showed his Southern strength and easily won South Carolina. In a surprise showing, Wesley Clark narrowly beat out Edwards for Oklahoma with Kerry a distant third....

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