Comments on: Michigan Post Mortem http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/michigan_post_mortem/ Online Journal of Politics and Foreign Affairs Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:46:54 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Richard Gardner http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/michigan_post_mortem/comment-page-1/#comment-266517 Richard Gardner Wed, 16 Jan 2008 18:10:21 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/01/michigan_post_mortem/#comment-266517 <blockquote>Despite Michigan’s having more delegates at stake than Iowa and New Hampshire combined.</blockquote> Normally that would be almost true, but since MI advanced the date of its primary breaking Party rules on both sides, the Democrats removed all MI delegates, and the Republicans removed half, so MI only gets 30 R delegates, fewer than IA. Looking at the Republican total delegates in the early primaries (slightly different from the delegates at-stake, with each state making its own rules, some winner take all, some proportional, some not at-stake state Party leaders): <li>IA: 41</li> <li>NH: 24 </li> <li>MI: 61 - but cut in half to 30</li> <li>NV: 34</li> <li>SC: 46</li> <li>FL: 113 - but cut in half to 57</li> Source: RCP

Despite Michigan’s having more delegates at stake than Iowa and New Hampshire combined.

Normally that would be almost true, but since MI advanced the date of its primary breaking Party rules on both sides, the Democrats removed all MI delegates, and the Republicans removed half, so MI only gets 30 R delegates, fewer than IA.

Looking at the Republican total delegates in the early primaries (slightly different from the delegates at-stake, with each state making its own rules, some winner take all, some proportional, some not at-stake state Party leaders):

  • IA: 41
  • NH: 24
  • MI: 61 - but cut in half to 30
  • NV: 34
  • SC: 46
  • FL: 113 - but cut in half to 57

    • Source: RCP

    ]]>         By: Liberty Pundit http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/michigan_post_mortem/comment-page-1/#comment-266505 Liberty Pundit Wed, 16 Jan 2008 17:11:19 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/01/michigan_post_mortem/#comment-266505 <strong>Post-Michigan Analysis...</strong> (I know Donald covered this already, but here’s my take.) Obviously you’ve all read about last… Popularity: unranked [?]...... Post-Michigan Analysis...

    (I know Donald covered this already, but here’s my take.)
    Obviously you’ve all read about last…
    Popularity: unranked [?]......

    ]]>         By: yetanotherjohn http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/michigan_post_mortem/comment-page-1/#comment-266504 yetanotherjohn Wed, 16 Jan 2008 17:09:21 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/01/michigan_post_mortem/#comment-266504 So lets see. We have Thompson win SC and Rudy win FLA and we end up with Huckabee, McCain, Romney, Thompson and Rudy all having their turn in the sun. I was wrong about McCain and Michigan because I was wrong about the independents and democrats coming out to vote. But I am starting to re-think my views on the contested convention. If McCain had won MI, I could see him running the table (or close enough to it) to win the nomination. Still possible, but harder for him. 2008 - Ain't politics great So lets see. We have Thompson win SC and Rudy win FLA and we end up with Huckabee, McCain, Romney, Thompson and Rudy all having their turn in the sun.

    I was wrong about McCain and Michigan because I was wrong about the independents and democrats coming out to vote. But I am starting to re-think my views on the contested convention. If McCain had won MI, I could see him running the table (or close enough to it) to win the nomination. Still possible, but harder for him.

    2008 - Ain't politics great

    ]]>         By: R. Alex http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/michigan_post_mortem/comment-page-1/#comment-266493 R. Alex Wed, 16 Jan 2008 15:36:49 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/01/michigan_post_mortem/#comment-266493 This is huge for Mike Huckabee. The fact that he got third doesn't help or hurt him, but Romney's victory keeps this race going, which is what Huckabee really needed. Had McCain won, not only would Romney have been knocked out but you would have seen a lot more coalescing around McCain and the momentum could have made this race over. I don't believe that a Romney win is likely at all, but this makes a Huckabee victory a lot more likely, in my view. This is huge for Mike Huckabee. The fact that he got third doesn't help or hurt him, but Romney's victory keeps this race going, which is what Huckabee really needed. Had McCain won, not only would Romney have been knocked out but you would have seen a lot more coalescing around McCain and the momentum could have made this race over.

    I don't believe that a Romney win is likely at all, but this makes a Huckabee victory a lot more likely, in my view.

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