So, my guess is that either more people are experimenting with illicit drugs or are too fat.

I would also add that a diagnosis such as ADD or ADHD (or other similar disorder) where the graduate is still taking medications disqualifies them from service. These diagnosis have been on the rise for years, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a higher percentage of graduates with the diagnosis than there was 5 or 10 years ago. A person can get into the military with these diagnosis, but they have to have been off their medications for I think 5 years before they attempt to enlist.

I do think competeing with college is a problem for any branch of the military with regards to recruitment.

All good points.

I'm sure the survey is of the state of the age pool as is. Certainly, someone sufficiently motivated to join the Army could lose weight, but that wouldn't be reflected in a cohort study.

I'd certainly prefer the Army lower its standards as to how many joints a person has smoked in his lifetime rather than the IQ standard.

And, yes, I'm pretty sure asthma and diabetes are disqualifying.

Tonight we talk about what links abortion, illegal immigration, social security, and a decline in military recruitment and the decline in Civic involvement. Paul "The Voice" Stanton calls in to sing the praises of Zell Miller and the second Amendment...

Oh well!

Also in the "morally unfit" category: every gay kid in America, according to the military anyway.

The "fat" thing I don't understand, though. Isn't basic a pretty effective weight-loss program? I'd think a fat kid who really wanted to join the Army could motivate himself to lose weight and run that eight-minute mile. Question: Are childhood diabetes and asthma disqualifiers? Perhaps the incidence of diseases like that are what's going up.

YAJ, you point out that the Army is meeting its goals now, but haven't those goals themselves been lowered in recent years? And also - just wanting to go to college ain't enough; you have to have increasingly greater sums of cash to get there. I would expect the offer of GI Bill $$, tuition reimbursement, ROTC scholarships, etc. to balance out the greater percentage of HS grads with college in mind.

Prior to some of the changes, the pool was 42% eligible. It is also good to keep in mind that at 42% eligible, the army failed to meet its recruitment goal in 2004. At 27% eligible, they met their goal in 2006.

The 2004 numbers had 24 million youth between 16 and 21. 14 million ineligible, 6 million of the remaining 10 million going on to college (and presumably eligible when they graduate or decide college isn't for them) and this leaves 4 million who are eligible and not going on to college for whatever reason.

Given that the Army wants at least 60% of its recruits in the top half of the mental distribution (which you would think that top half is mostly going on to college), you start to get a feel for how hard it is to meet the recruitment goals.

Great minds apparently think alike. (See second paragraph of the above post.)

Given that we have an all-volunteer force and are in the middle of a long war, recruiting is naturally difficult.

True, but the standards of "morally, intellectually or physically" fit ought to be reasonably static. I wonder what the breakout among those categories was - are kids less fit, dumber, or more likely to have a criminal record these days?