Comments on: News You Can Use: Summer Polls Useless http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/news_you_can_use_summer_polls_useless/ Online Journal of Politics and Foreign Affairs Thu, 26 Nov 2009 02:19:10 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Patrick T. McGuire http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/news_you_can_use_summer_polls_useless/comment-page-1/#comment-465008 Patrick T. McGuire Mon, 21 Jul 2008 16:09:26 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24518#comment-465008 <blockquote>How do you reconcile the excitement and enthusiasm of the Obama campaign and Sen. Barack Obama’s apparent confidence with the polls showing a neck and neck race between Sen. Obama and Sen. John McCain? </blockquote> A couple of things come to mind here. One is that the MSM is pushing Obama so the actual "enthusiasm" may be less than is being reported. Then, the reported enthusiasm usually originates from younger people while us older farts have a hard time getting enthused about much of anything. But then we older farts are the ones who tend to vote more than the younger ones so if the polls are taken of "likely voters", we older farts tend to dominate.

How do you reconcile the excitement and enthusiasm of the Obama campaign and Sen. Barack Obama’s apparent confidence with the polls showing a neck and neck race between Sen. Obama and Sen. John McCain?

A couple of things come to mind here. One is that the MSM is pushing Obama so the actual "enthusiasm" may be less than is being reported.

Then, the reported enthusiasm usually originates from younger people while us older farts have a hard time getting enthused about much of anything. But then we older farts are the ones who tend to vote more than the younger ones so if the polls are taken of "likely voters", we older farts tend to dominate.

]]> By: Derrick http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/news_you_can_use_summer_polls_useless/comment-page-1/#comment-464991 Derrick Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:57:52 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24518#comment-464991 I blame teh Internets. People are so caught up in the horserace with all of the websites and 50 polling outfits that they lose sight of the big picture. Using a little of Wayne's post, I used to think that "being clutch" and "base stealing" were important parts of winning at baseball, until I discovered sabermetrics and realized that macro statistical analysis is a much better predictor of an outcome than any day to day stat that can be exploited by variability and small sample size. I feel more confidant about Obama's chances than I felt insecure about Kerry's in 2004 because of what the good professor states. The broader analysis tells you that the candidates only matter at the margins. Obviously luck can play a factor, but in the end, consumer confidence and the incumbent party matter a lot more than who McCain and Obama are. I blame teh Internets. People are so caught up in the horserace with all of the websites and 50 polling outfits that they lose sight of the big picture. Using a little of Wayne's post, I used to think that "being clutch" and "base stealing" were important parts of winning at baseball, until I discovered sabermetrics and realized that macro statistical analysis is a much better predictor of an outcome than any day to day stat that can be exploited by variability and small sample size.

I feel more confidant about Obama's chances than I felt insecure about Kerry's in 2004 because of what the good professor states. The broader analysis tells you that the candidates only matter at the margins. Obviously luck can play a factor, but in the end, consumer confidence and the incumbent party matter a lot more than who McCain and Obama are.

]]> By: Wayne http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/news_you_can_use_summer_polls_useless/comment-page-1/#comment-464985 Wayne Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:41:14 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24518#comment-464985 It reminds me of the sporting events prediction from past stats that people use. For every one that ends up being true many others turn out false. McCain is independent enough that some would consider him a change. Funny thing about contest one doesn’t know the outcome until it happens. The reasons for the outcome are often speculative in nature especially in a political race. It reminds me of the sporting events prediction from past stats that people use. For every one that ends up being true many others turn out false. McCain is independent enough that some would consider him a change. Funny thing about contest one doesn’t know the outcome until it happens. The reasons for the outcome are often speculative in nature especially in a political race.

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