Comments on: Newsweek Poll: Kerry 47, Bush 45

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Mon, 04 Oct 2004 00:43:39 +0000

dw: The Newseum thing is virtually useless since it's not searchable. Looking at papers from Peoria really doesn't tell me anything, since local papers are usually rather tabloidish. Major national papers usually aren't. NYT has nothing but "real" news stories above the fold on page 1, though. I couldn't find LA Times. Boston Globe had "real" stories, although local ones. WaPo had another installment of the gay teens thing (I get the hard copy so saw it.)

By: dw

dw — Mon, 04 Oct 2004 00:01:40 +0000

If Newsweek has a Dem slant, and Kerry did a lot better in those polls, then it seems to confirm a conjecture I had about the debates: It won't move the independent numbers that much, but it will galvanize a wavering Dem base. All a sudden, you're not hearing the "it's already over" talk out of the left, and I think that this poll could be capturing that mood swing. And swing means momentum, and momentum moves the middle....

James, you go to the Newseum site today and looked at the feature articles all over the covers (as discussed last week)?

http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/

By: Gary and the Samoyeds

Gary and the Samoyeds — Sun, 03 Oct 2004 21:11:28 +0000

Newsweek previously had a poll which had the President 11% ahead. Comparing that poll with this one, you will see that the D/R/I percentage for each candidate is within 1% between the two. However, the percentage of respondants was R-biased in the previous poll and D-biased in this one. By simply changing the respondants, you can do a 10-point shift.

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Sun, 03 Oct 2004 17:54:24 +0000

Bill: We're not talking about Gallup here. There are some obvious problems with their "likely voter" screen, although their recent numbers have been in accord with other polls.

Kevin: The internals seem all over the placeon many of these questions. And Rasmussen appears to be an outlier on the overall numbers.

By: McGehee

McGehee — Sun, 03 Oct 2004 17:42:39 +0000

The Rasmussen polls show Bush's lead holding steady, from what I hear. And the after-the-debate portion of the sample felt that it was more important to finish the job in Iraq, however long that takes, than to get our troops home ASAP.

Doesn't look to me like a "Kerry won the debate" scenario after all.

By: Bill K

Bill K — Sun, 03 Oct 2004 17:17:53 +0000

What's strange James is that you point out that Newsweek overpolls Democrats with no proof yet ignore the blatant evidence of Gallups recent overpolling of Republicans.

By: Shot In The Dark

Shot In The Dark — Sun, 03 Oct 2004 16:51:23 +0000

News Flash: Majority of Democrats Prefer Kerry!
Patterico notes the significance of the Newsweek poll that shows Kerry ahead:The Newsweek poll, which has rather consistently overpolled Democrats as compared to the other major polls, shows Kerry having erased his deficit in the first post-debate poll...