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	<title>Comments on: Nigerian Guerillas Attack Oil Industry, Kidnap 9 Foreigners</title>
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		<title>By: Jonk</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/nigerian_thugs_attack_oil_industry_kidnap_9_foreigners/comment-page-1/#comment-74232</link>
		<dc:creator>Jonk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Feb 2006 21:13:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/13736#comment-74232</guid>
		<description>You have to make the targets harder to hit, not impossible...the oil industry (here in the US) has the resources to defend the main installations and definitely the offshore rigs.  They just don&#039;t want to invest in that defense, and allow the fluctuations in the market to panic the government (i.e. the citizens) into doing it for them.  I agree you cannot defend thousands of miles of pipeline, but if the terrorists find it *harder* to do so, you can count on them to move on to something easier.  

I am afraid the US (and the West in general) is not in this for the long haul; we are only in it until the next election...this is going to be a generational war.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You have to make the targets harder to hit, not impossible...the oil industry (here in the US) has the resources to defend the main installations and definitely the offshore rigs.  They just don't want to invest in that defense, and allow the fluctuations in the market to panic the government (i.e. the citizens) into doing it for them.  I agree you cannot defend thousands of miles of pipeline, but if the terrorists find it *harder* to do so, you can count on them to move on to something easier.  </p>
<p>I am afraid the US (and the West in general) is not in this for the long haul; we are only in it until the next election...this is going to be a generational war.</p>
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		<title>By: fester</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/nigerian_thugs_attack_oil_industry_kidnap_9_foreigners/comment-page-1/#comment-74225</link>
		<dc:creator>fester</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Feb 2006 19:45:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/13736#comment-74225</guid>
		<description>Jonk --- what are you talking about that this is an easy set of attacks to defend against?  Reading through Robb&#039;s work, and then looking at Iraq, linear, fairly brittle systems with easily identifiable chokepoints and potential failure nodes are damn tough items to defend.  Sure security forces can defend hard points such as a refinery, but that refinery is useless if all the pipelines into it are cut [Bajii], or if the truck drivers are too scared to go to work [Bajii] or if international capital and manpower for repairs becomes very reluctant to enter the operational area [all of Iraq] and spending billions of dollars on security does not guarantee positive security outcomes [Iraq].  This problem is especially severe when the critical infrastructure goes through territory of a fairly homogenous group that believes it should be getting a much better deal than it collectively and currently is.  

Finally, the point of Robb&#039;s work is to point out that the modern/post-modern global arrangements of states is heavily dependent on thousands of lightly to non-protected systems that are extraordinarily vulnerable to low cost attacks by quasi organized groups acting with a fairly high degree of self-direction and low centralized organization.  You are arguing his point for him while trying to argue against it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jonk --- what are you talking about that this is an easy set of attacks to defend against?  Reading through Robb's work, and then looking at Iraq, linear, fairly brittle systems with easily identifiable chokepoints and potential failure nodes are damn tough items to defend.  Sure security forces can defend hard points such as a refinery, but that refinery is useless if all the pipelines into it are cut [Bajii], or if the truck drivers are too scared to go to work [Bajii] or if international capital and manpower for repairs becomes very reluctant to enter the operational area [all of Iraq] and spending billions of dollars on security does not guarantee positive security outcomes [Iraq].  This problem is especially severe when the critical infrastructure goes through territory of a fairly homogenous group that believes it should be getting a much better deal than it collectively and currently is.  </p>
<p>Finally, the point of Robb's work is to point out that the modern/post-modern global arrangements of states is heavily dependent on thousands of lightly to non-protected systems that are extraordinarily vulnerable to low cost attacks by quasi organized groups acting with a fairly high degree of self-direction and low centralized organization.  You are arguing his point for him while trying to argue against it.</p>
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		<title>By: G A PHILLIPS</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/nigerian_thugs_attack_oil_industry_kidnap_9_foreigners/comment-page-1/#comment-74178</link>
		<dc:creator>G A PHILLIPS</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Feb 2006 06:23:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/13736#comment-74178</guid>
		<description>The power plants sound like a good idea, but do  any of you Libs think could talk one of your mad scientists into cloning us a couple of General Patton&#039;s.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The power plants sound like a good idea, but do  any of you Libs think could talk one of your mad scientists into cloning us a couple of General Patton's.</p>
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		<title>By: yetanotherjohn</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/nigerian_thugs_attack_oil_industry_kidnap_9_foreigners/comment-page-1/#comment-74170</link>
		<dc:creator>yetanotherjohn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Feb 2006 03:36:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/13736#comment-74170</guid>
		<description>One advantage for the terrorist is the left can reuse their &quot;No blood for oil&quot; placards.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One advantage for the terrorist is the left can reuse their "No blood for oil" placards.</p>
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		<title>By: Randall</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/nigerian_thugs_attack_oil_industry_kidnap_9_foreigners/comment-page-1/#comment-74166</link>
		<dc:creator>Randall</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Feb 2006 02:32:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/13736#comment-74166</guid>
		<description>For many years, the problems of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa have been blamed on America, &quot;The West,&quot; or, for good measure, the Zionists.

I will not enjoy the misery to which these parts of the world seem headed, but I will not miss the arrangements that made blaming everybody BUT the people in these parts of the world appear at least superficially plausible.

Nigerians who wan&#039;t freedom, or at least non-Sharia, need to speak up and act up now, and if they can&#039;t, they will share blame for what comes next.

Also,we might want to seriously consider building about a hundred nuclear power planst some time next week.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For many years, the problems of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa have been blamed on America, "The West," or, for good measure, the Zionists.</p>
<p>I will not enjoy the misery to which these parts of the world seem headed, but I will not miss the arrangements that made blaming everybody BUT the people in these parts of the world appear at least superficially plausible.</p>
<p>Nigerians who wan't freedom, or at least non-Sharia, need to speak up and act up now, and if they can't, they will share blame for what comes next.</p>
<p>Also,we might want to seriously consider building about a hundred nuclear power planst some time next week.</p>
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		<title>By: Anderson</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/nigerian_thugs_attack_oil_industry_kidnap_9_foreigners/comment-page-1/#comment-74152</link>
		<dc:creator>Anderson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Feb 2006 21:55:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/13736#comment-74152</guid>
		<description>I have pondered why the Saudi wells haven&#039;t been destroyed, and my best guess is that al-Qaeda and its colleagues are still enjoying too much under-the-counter $$$ support from Saudi millionaires.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have pondered why the Saudi wells haven't been destroyed, and my best guess is that al-Qaeda and its colleagues are still enjoying too much under-the-counter $$$ support from Saudi millionaires.</p>
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		<title>By: Mifod</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/nigerian_thugs_attack_oil_industry_kidnap_9_foreigners/comment-page-1/#comment-74149</link>
		<dc:creator>Mifod</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Feb 2006 19:19:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/13736#comment-74149</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;In a previous post, he predicted this sort of attack as the next logical step for global terrorists. &lt;/blockquote&gt;

What in the world are you talking about, James?  This is a pretty old method used by insurgents to advance their political agendas. I am not sure if there are any &quot;lessons to be learned&quot; by this especially given the fact that the current dispute inovlving the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta emerges entirely out of the history of corruption in Nigeria, the role of oil wealth in sustaining corruption, and long-standing regional independence movements that have been prevlent in the country since its independence from the UK in 1960.

To link this event to John Robb&#039;s previous post is absurd given the fact that this has absolutely nothing to do with the US or its interests.  Independence groups in Third World countries bordering on anarchy offer little in the way of understanding how terrorists might operate in the US.

You fall in the trap of assuming that &quot;terrorist&quot; groups are some sort of homogenous whole without recognizing the historical context of these groups&#039; emergence.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>In a previous post, he predicted this sort of attack as the next logical step for global terrorists. </p></blockquote>
<p>What in the world are you talking about, James?  This is a pretty old method used by insurgents to advance their political agendas. I am not sure if there are any "lessons to be learned" by this especially given the fact that the current dispute inovlving the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta emerges entirely out of the history of corruption in Nigeria, the role of oil wealth in sustaining corruption, and long-standing regional independence movements that have been prevlent in the country since its independence from the UK in 1960.</p>
<p>To link this event to John Robb's previous post is absurd given the fact that this has absolutely nothing to do with the US or its interests.  Independence groups in Third World countries bordering on anarchy offer little in the way of understanding how terrorists might operate in the US.</p>
<p>You fall in the trap of assuming that "terrorist" groups are some sort of homogenous whole without recognizing the historical context of these groups' emergence.</p>
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		<title>By: Jonk</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/nigerian_thugs_attack_oil_industry_kidnap_9_foreigners/comment-page-1/#comment-74140</link>
		<dc:creator>Jonk</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Feb 2006 17:22:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/13736#comment-74140</guid>
		<description>If it becomes a serious threat, the oil industry will hire the same contractors for security the government does, and pay them even better -- they can afford to.  I don&#039;t see this as a real threat.  Economic terrorism versus the oil industry will have to be on a large and much more destructive scale, such that it cannot be countered by a team of well trained security types or investment in decent defensive hardware -- I don&#039;t see the capability right now.  Currently these targets are soft and easy pickings.  I just don&#039;t see the industry sitting on its hands waiting to be rescued if things get really rough.  

Terrorists are lazy, they don&#039;t attack directly where the strength is, they attack at the fringes, where the weakness lies, with the minimal force necessary to cause maximum gain.  Boxcutters and light airline security was a brilliant move (cost to them to stage it versus the cost to us reacting to it make the 9/11 attack probably the single most effect attack in history).  Thus, I see container ports a much more likely entry point for the next level of terror -- the cost to truly secure these has a far greater economic impact than attempting to attack the resource rich oil industry.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If it becomes a serious threat, the oil industry will hire the same contractors for security the government does, and pay them even better -- they can afford to.  I don't see this as a real threat.  Economic terrorism versus the oil industry will have to be on a large and much more destructive scale, such that it cannot be countered by a team of well trained security types or investment in decent defensive hardware -- I don't see the capability right now.  Currently these targets are soft and easy pickings.  I just don't see the industry sitting on its hands waiting to be rescued if things get really rough.  </p>
<p>Terrorists are lazy, they don't attack directly where the strength is, they attack at the fringes, where the weakness lies, with the minimal force necessary to cause maximum gain.  Boxcutters and light airline security was a brilliant move (cost to them to stage it versus the cost to us reacting to it make the 9/11 attack probably the single most effect attack in history).  Thus, I see container ports a much more likely entry point for the next level of terror -- the cost to truly secure these has a far greater economic impact than attempting to attack the resource rich oil industry.</p>
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