Comments on: North Korea Will Not Be Ignored

By: Staring In Disbelief

Staring In Disbelief — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 15:53:32 +0000

I think that the NoKos military capabilities are grossly overestimated. What is known in unclassified sources comes mainly from superficial evidence or the Norks themselves. Any country that has as much trouble feeding its own people and watching them so closely as does North Korea is a stupendously brittle entity. So why would they be saber rattling? I think it signals yet another serious internal crisis that requires them to try to squeeze more aid money from South Korea and the West. It's worked every time in the past. They rattle sabers and make wild threats that almost no other country would get away with and then we pay them off to keep quiet and behave. I think if the South or the US ever really called their bluff they'd collapse rather than lash out. I think they are a hollow scarecrow. Hell, even that much-ballyhooed nuke test sounded a lot like a fizzle (under-yield explosion) due to poor quality warhead construction. Sooner or later the South & China will realize that putting off the day of reckoning only increases the final cost of the inevitable breakdown, and that if they got together and managed it now it would be a lot better for all concerned.

By: steve s

steve s — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 05:24:38 +0000

Daniel knows more about the issue than I do. But I think we agree on the main point: ROK could win, probably, but the cost could be hideous.

By: Daniel

Daniel — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 04:10:03 +0000

yeah, I second what steve s just said..... I am not sure what you are thinking of when you make that statement.

I am more afraid of their artillery than the nukes (they have to deploy them, and I suspect between the CAP and ADA their chance of delivering anything by air (and that is the only chance other than smuggling... their tech doesn't support artillery delivered devices) next to nil). But good god, they have a very scary ADA system themselves and a truly frightening amount of artillery, most of it very well dug in. This doesn't even factor in that they most definitely have scary amounts of infiltrators in ROK.... The damage that they can do is very hard to calculate, in particular in a pre-emptive strike situation.

And that doesn't count the very defenses of the country itself.... that country is a warren of dug in defenses. ROK may be able to blunt an offensive, but they lack an effective counterpunch against NK.

By: steve s

steve s — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 03:11:09 +0000

I find this completely baffling. The situation on the Korean peninsula is completely different from what it was 50 years ago. I suspect that South Korea could take North Korea in about a week.

Are you aware that Seoul, SC, home to 25 million people, is about 75 miles from North Korea, which has nukes and rockets?

By: just me

just me — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 21:01:52 +0000

I think this is an attempt to test Obama. Sort of like a child tests the baby sitter when the parents leave, NK is trying to feel Obama out and to see what they can and can't get away with.

I am not convinced China will do anything to protect North Korea if they get too stupid, but there is a lot N. Korea can do between playing nice and war.