Comments on: Obama and McCain Polls: Dead Heat Going into Conventions http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/ Online Journal of Politics and Foreign Affairs Thu, 26 Nov 2009 01:27:15 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Bruce Moomaw http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-489146 Bruce Moomaw Tue, 05 Aug 2008 19:08:53 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-489146 Shucks, Charles; we're talking about 3 of the only 6 Presidential races since 1948 in which there was any significant shift in either direction during the campaign. (If it's any comfort, you do have 1976, 1980 and 1988 on your side as races in which the Republican candidate did better in November than he was doing at this point in summer.) Shucks, Charles; we're talking about 3 of the only 6 Presidential races since 1948 in which there was any significant shift in either direction during the campaign. (If it's any comfort, you do have 1976, 1980 and 1988 on your side as races in which the Republican candidate did better in November than he was doing at this point in summer.)

]]> By: charles austin http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-489027 charles austin Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:16:05 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-489027 Bruce, nice job cherry picking dates and elections. Very persuasive. Bruce, nice job cherry picking dates and elections. Very persuasive.

]]> By: Bruce Moomaw http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-488666 Bruce Moomaw Tue, 05 Aug 2008 04:53:10 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-488666 CORRECTION: Jeb Bush's second list of "ex-felons" was actually correct where black ex-felons were concerned -- but (as the Miami Herald finally pried out of his administration through herculean efforts) it mistakenly failed to include a single, solitary HISPANIC ex-felon. This is interesting because in Florida, unlike most states, Hispanics lean Republican, thanks to the fact that they're largely Cuban. Accidental? Maybe. My apologies for my mistake, but anyone who tries to understand recent Florida elections can get mixed up awfully easily. CORRECTION: Jeb Bush's second list of "ex-felons" was actually correct where black ex-felons were concerned -- but (as the Miami Herald finally pried out of his administration through herculean efforts) it mistakenly failed to include a single, solitary HISPANIC ex-felon. This is interesting because in Florida, unlike most states, Hispanics lean Republican, thanks to the fact that they're largely Cuban. Accidental? Maybe.

My apologies for my mistake, but anyone who tries to understand recent Florida elections can get mixed up awfully easily.

]]> By: Bruce Moomaw http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-488662 Bruce Moomaw Tue, 05 Aug 2008 04:45:46 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-488662 And to WR: While all your accusations are true (with the possible exception of the last one, although even some conservative legal scholars such as Michael McConnell think the Court's decision stank), none of them actually swung the election for Bush -- except that first one, which really did. (The most bizarre aspect of the 2000 Florida election was that if the recount had gone according to the rules Bush wanted, Gore would have won -- whereas if it had gone according to the rules Gore wanted, Bush would have won. If it had gone according to the rules the Florida State Supreme Court wanted, Bush would also have won. Details on request.) The false list of "black felons" really DID unquestionably throw the 2000 Presidential election to Bush -- but it was actually initiated under Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles. However, this was only 6 months before the end of his term, whereas Jeb Bush's administration not only didn't reexamine it for two straight years before the election, but then actually constructed ANOTHER such list of fake "black felons", which would have gone into effect during the 2004 election if the Miami Herald hadn't fought Jeb hammer and tongs for years to try and get access to the list and finally found a sympathetic judge. One reason I have a soft spot for Florida's new GOP Gov. Charles Crist is that two of the first things he did on entering office -- which he won over the cold dead body of Jeb Bush's machine, which had tried desperately to hook the GOP nomination for another candidate -- were to (1) get rid of all this crap once and for all by immediately eliminating ANY disenfranchising of ex-felons, and (2) also get rid of those sinister very easily riggable Diebold voting machines that Jeb and Katherine Harris were determined to install. He'd make an excellent running mate for McCain -- except for those rumors that he's really One Of Them, which his recent marriage may have been an attempt to squelch. And to WR: While all your accusations are true (with the possible exception of the last one, although even some conservative legal scholars such as Michael McConnell think the Court's decision stank), none of them actually swung the election for Bush -- except that first one, which really did. (The most bizarre aspect of the 2000 Florida election was that if the recount had gone according to the rules Bush wanted, Gore would have won -- whereas if it had gone according to the rules Gore wanted, Bush would have won. If it had gone according to the rules the Florida State Supreme Court wanted, Bush would also have won. Details on request.)

The false list of "black felons" really DID unquestionably throw the 2000 Presidential election to Bush -- but it was actually initiated under Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles. However, this was only 6 months before the end of his term, whereas Jeb Bush's administration not only didn't reexamine it for two straight years before the election, but then actually constructed ANOTHER such list of fake "black felons", which would have gone into effect during the 2004 election if the Miami Herald hadn't fought Jeb hammer and tongs for years to try and get access to the list and finally found a sympathetic judge.

One reason I have a soft spot for Florida's new GOP Gov. Charles Crist is that two of the first things he did on entering office -- which he won over the cold dead body of Jeb Bush's machine, which had tried desperately to hook the GOP nomination for another candidate -- were to (1) get rid of all this crap once and for all by immediately eliminating ANY disenfranchising of ex-felons, and (2) also get rid of those sinister very easily riggable Diebold voting machines that Jeb and Katherine Harris were determined to install. He'd make an excellent running mate for McCain -- except for those rumors that he's really One Of Them, which his recent marriage may have been an attempt to squelch.

]]> By: Bruce Moomaw http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-488486 Bruce Moomaw Tue, 05 Aug 2008 02:27:42 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-488486 Austin: "Historically, a dead heat now means the Democrats are losing, and perhaps losing badly." A wee bit premature. 1968: Humphrey kicks off campaign trailing Nixon by 12 points; comes within 3/4% of winning. 1992: Clinton trails Bush Sr. by landslide in June; surges into 15-point lead by September; slides back to 5-point (but still solid) win by November. 2000: Gore trails Bush solidly in July; surges into 8-point lead by September; slides back to 1/2% popular-vote win in November (but is robbed of it by Electoral College, plus fact that Nader decides to sabotage the democratic process for his personal amusement and deliberately bleeds 2% off Gore's margin). As for those "trend lines": note that McCain was actually closer to him a few weeks ago before the margin re-widened, and it's still not back to being as narrow as it was then. (Rasmussen's poll today is indeed interesting -- but Gallup's poll today shows Obama moving back into a 3-point lead today after McCain had caught up with him 2 days ago.) So, the current close polls mean what they've always meant: as Joyner says, right now we don't have the slightest idea who's going to win. (Although we DO know, with virtual certainty, that the Dems are going to beat the snot out of the GOP for the second Congressional election in a row, and that if McCain does win it will be entirely due to his idiosyncratic popularity as a war hero. See the compendium of Congressional polls at <a href="http://www.pollingreport.com/cong2008.htm" rel="nofollow">Polling Report</a> and <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot" rel="nofollow">Rasmussen</a> .) Austin: "Historically, a dead heat now means the Democrats are losing, and perhaps losing badly."

A wee bit premature. 1968: Humphrey kicks off campaign trailing Nixon by 12 points; comes within 3/4% of winning.

1992: Clinton trails Bush Sr. by landslide in June; surges into 15-point lead by September; slides back to 5-point (but still solid) win by November.

2000: Gore trails Bush solidly in July; surges into 8-point lead by September; slides back to 1/2% popular-vote win in November (but is robbed of it by Electoral College, plus fact that Nader decides to sabotage the democratic process for his personal amusement and deliberately bleeds 2% off Gore's margin).

As for those "trend lines": note that McCain was actually closer to him a few weeks ago before the margin re-widened, and it's still not back to being as narrow as it was then. (Rasmussen's poll today is indeed interesting -- but Gallup's poll today shows Obama moving back into a 3-point lead today after McCain had caught up with him 2 days ago.)

So, the current close polls mean what they've always meant: as Joyner says, right now we don't have the slightest idea who's going to win. (Although we DO know, with virtual certainty, that the Dems are going to beat the snot out of the GOP for the second Congressional election in a row, and that if McCain does win it will be entirely due to his idiosyncratic popularity as a war hero. See the compendium of Congressional polls at Polling Report and Rasmussen .)

]]> By: WR http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-488406 WR Tue, 05 Aug 2008 00:44:37 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-488406 Actually, Bithead, if you'd been paying attention 8 years ago you would have heard that Bush stole the election because the Republicans threw tens of thousands of African-Americans off the voter roles because their names slightly resembled those of convicted felons, because the Republican secretary of state shut down vote counting prematurely, because the Bush team sent in squads of thugs to make sure counting votes couldn't continue (and then made sure that all the leaders of the "white collar riot" got cushy White House jobs, and because a right-leaning Supreme Court ignored the law, the precedents, and their own stated political beliefs to hand the presidency to the guy who they backed. The only screaming about the popular vote referred to the way Gore won it -- in Florida. And thus the electoral college. Fortunately, it all turned out so well with Bush in charge... Actually, Bithead, if you'd been paying attention 8 years ago you would have heard that Bush stole the election because the Republicans threw tens of thousands of African-Americans off the voter roles because their names slightly resembled those of convicted felons, because the Republican secretary of state shut down vote counting prematurely, because the Bush team sent in squads of thugs to make sure counting votes couldn't continue (and then made sure that all the leaders of the "white collar riot" got cushy White House jobs, and because a right-leaning Supreme Court ignored the law, the precedents, and their own stated political beliefs to hand the presidency to the guy who they backed.

The only screaming about the popular vote referred to the way Gore won it -- in Florida. And thus the electoral college.

Fortunately, it all turned out so well with Bush in charge...

]]> By: charles austin http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-488249 charles austin Mon, 04 Aug 2008 22:21:12 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-488249 Historically, a dead heat now means the Democrats are losing, and perhaps losing badly. Historically, a dead heat now means the Democrats are losing, and perhaps losing badly.

]]> By: Myspace Polls http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-488163 Myspace Polls Mon, 04 Aug 2008 21:38:25 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-488163 I think should win so we can see a change in the structure and politics of how things work. But at the same time by looking at the polls I think that McCain will win because of some people not wanting change. I'll be interested to see how these polls effect the real results! I think should win so we can see a change in the structure and politics of how things work. But at the same time by looking at the polls I think that McCain will win because of some people not wanting change. I'll be interested to see how these polls effect the real results!

]]> By: Bithead http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-488122 Bithead Mon, 04 Aug 2008 21:08:32 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-488122 <blockquote>Obama currently has a 240 to 174 Electoral vote edge, with 124 Electoral votes in the Toss Up column. 270 are needed to win.</blockquote> What a turnaround from eight years ago, when we were told that Bush stole the election, based on the popular vote. Now, suddenly, the electoral system is valid again.

Obama currently has a 240 to 174 Electoral vote edge, with 124 Electoral votes in the Toss Up column. 270 are needed to win.

What a turnaround from eight years ago, when we were told that Bush stole the election, based on the popular vote. Now, suddenly, the electoral system is valid again.

]]> By: anjin-san http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-488001 anjin-san Mon, 04 Aug 2008 19:42:29 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-488001 According to the Cook Political Report: Obama currently has a 240 to 174 Electoral vote edge, with 124 Electoral votes in the Toss Up column. 270 are needed to win. Does not sound like a dead heat, or a momentum shift. According to the Cook Political Report:

Obama currently has a 240 to 174 Electoral vote edge, with 124 Electoral votes in the Toss Up column. 270 are needed to win.

Does not sound like a dead heat, or a momentum shift.

]]> By: Bithead http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-487946 Bithead Mon, 04 Aug 2008 17:26:21 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-487946 I hate to burn up the straw you're holding onto, but over the last couple months, Obama's lead (What, almost 10 points?) has melted away. Momentum. And as you say, we've not even started yet. I hate to burn up the straw you're holding onto, but over the last couple months, Obama's lead (What, almost 10 points?) has melted away.
Momentum.

And as you say, we've not even started yet.

]]> By: sam http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-487945 sam Mon, 04 Aug 2008 17:23:19 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-487945 Well, I'm not sure the thing is doing anything at the present but stooging around in a holding pattern. The contest has not really been joined. Well, I'm not sure the thing is doing anything at the present but stooging around in a holding pattern. The contest has not really been joined.

]]> By: Bithead http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-487914 Bithead Mon, 04 Aug 2008 16:01:45 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-487914 Oh, I don't think the numbers themselves mean much... except the direction things are moving. After all, they're not holding the election today, are they? The direction the thing is taking, is what I take as James' underlying point, here. Oh, I don't think the numbers themselves mean much... except the direction things are moving. After all, they're not holding the election today, are they?

The direction the thing is taking, is what I take as James' underlying point, here.

]]> By: Obama Retreats from Debates with McCain - TDR Roundtable http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-487886 Obama Retreats from Debates with McCain - TDR Roundtable Mon, 04 Aug 2008 15:04:42 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-487886 [...] Obama and McCain Polls: Dead Heat Going into Conventions Obama and McCain Polls: Dead Heat Going into Conventions James Joyner | Monday, August 4, 2008 I saw the headline “Poll Finds Little Support for Obama” on memeorandum and, of course, clicked out of curiousity. It turns out to have been a poll in Oklahoma, where John McCain has a comfortable 56-24 lead. That’s not exactly surprising. If it was even close in Oklahoma, we’d be looking at an absolute rout. What’s more interesting, though, is that despite a bad couple of weeks for McCain and Obama’s rock star reception on his world tour, the numbers are actually tightening in McCain’s favor. Look at the most recent iterations of the national polls aggregated at RealClearPolitics: SEE listing in article __________________ "03" 3500 SRW HO CTD 48RE, X-Monitor, BD Exhaust Brake,BD AutoLoc, Gator Back Bed Liner. Air Lift 5000 bags. AFE PG-7/prefilter 2000 Alfa 31' 5th wheel [...]

]]> By: sam http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/obama_and_mccain_polls_dead_heat_going_into_conventions/comment-page-1/#comment-487877 sam Mon, 04 Aug 2008 14:55:53 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=24688#comment-487877 <blockquote>I dunno. Did you see this morning, where Rasmussen has Mccain ahead?</blockquote> Some ahead: <blockquote>This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3.</blockquote> But I guess an insignicant straw is still a straw to clutch.

I dunno. Did you see this morning, where Rasmussen has Mccain ahead?

Some ahead:

This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3.

But I guess an insignicant straw is still a straw to clutch.

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