Comments on: Obama Surge? Or Polling Error?

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 13:47:39 +0000

my initial response to the double-digit lead for Obama was skepticism/that it was an anomaly, yet it seems to be showing up in all the polls at this point.

Yup, my sense as well. He's leading big in most of the polls in the RCP chart, which are all in the last couple of days.

By: Hal

Hal — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 13:13:15 +0000

Sorry, but I just couldn't resist pointing out this humorous typo in your post: But I’m rather dubious of a shaft that dramatic in one day Just gave me a chuckle while I'm here waiting in the airport lounge... Heh. Fixed. -jhj

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 12:49:14 +0000

that uptick in the green line seems to be from right around Iowa (though it is hard to pick out the exact day on that graph).

But it's only an uptick because it follows what appears to be a one-day anomaly wherein Obama plummets and Clinton surges. Otherwise, as Steven notes, it's been a steady trend since September.

By: Steven Taylor

Steven Taylor — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 12:48:46 +0000

And James: my initial response to the double-digit lead for Obama was skepticism/that it was an anomaly, yet it seems to be showing up in all the polls at this point. I noted several here and here. Zogby has a new one this morning with the same basic result.

By: Steven Taylor

Steven Taylor — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 12:37:20 +0000

Well, looking at the line graph, Obama has had a positive trend going since September.

By: Tano

Tano — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 12:33:02 +0000

"If one looks at more polls, though, and the trends over time, we see a pretty steady movement towards Obama that started well before Iowa voted."

But all the polls you list start on 1/4, the day after Iowa. And that uptick in the green line seems to be from right around Iowa (though it is hard to pick out the exact day on that graph).

Are there other data that might actually support your point?