Obama’s Bounce Redux
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James Joyner | Wednesday, June 18, 2008 |
Conflicting headlines today on the state of the polls and, specifically, whether Barack Obama has gotten a “bounce” after consolidating the Democratic nomination and getting Hillary Clinton’s support.
- John Zogby: “Reuters/Zogby Poll: Obama Leads McCain, But Wins No Big Bounce — Defeating Hillary Clinton and locking up the Democratic Party nomination fails to propel Obama forward“
- Marc Ambinder: “Here’s Your Bounce: Obama Up In PA, FL, OH“
There’s really not much conflict here, just different emphases. Zogby refers to his own national poll of likely voters which finds “Obama leads McCain, 47% to 42%.” Given a +/-3 margin of sampling error and the fact that Obama was already leading, Zogby sees no bounce.
Ambinder, meanwhile, is looking at state polls of likely voters conducted by Quinnipiac:
Florida: Obama: 47, McCain 43
Ohio: Obama 48, McCain 42
Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 40
A look at swing states is much more interesting, given how we select presidents, than a national head-to-head. Whether these results constitute a “bounce,” of course, depends on the previous results. Strangely, no trend analysis is given. The previous polls I found on their site for Florida and Pennsylvania dealt with other issues and did not include an Obama-McCain matchup.
I would be remiss in not adding the usual caveat: While I’d rather that my candidate be ahead than behind right now, polling about November elections done in mid-June is all but worthless in predicting the outcome.
Photo: CNEWS
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia.
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Pollster aggregates polls, and to my untrained eye seemed pretty reliable across the primaries.
I would be remiss in not adding the usual caveat: While I’d rather that my candidate be ahead than behind right now, polling about November elections done in mid-June is all but worthless in predicting the outcome.
Very true, the point of a poll is an instantaneous measure of where we are now. they can do that well when conducted smartly. Figuring out "what will happen later" based on "where we are now" is a hell of a lot more complicated :)
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