Those are projections, not polling results. I don't find that interesting at this stage.

Bit surprised by your answer James, is there that much of a difference between “projections” and “predictions”, to wit:

Given that I predicted, before the Democratic Convention got underway, that Obama would get a bounce of “between four and five points,” I’m not terribly surprised.

But, as usual I am stumbling over words and their meaning. FiveThirtyEight.com has a decided Left Center tilt to it in its editorial content, but that does not invalidate its “projections”.

My own view is that the Obama bump is sucking from the “uncommitted” voters, and such it will take time to manifest itself. If your view (and indeed mine) of the Sarah Palin nomination holds, I doubt McCain’s bump will go over over three points.

I just wonder whether the monster lurking under placid waters is being captured by polls, or adequately factored into projections.

Sigh, only the Shadow knows, and time, I suppose will tell…

Three strikes and you're out.

I'm tired of your Lib/Prog bias attempting to masquerade as Libertarian/Conservative.
I'm tired of your specious commentary laced with faux concern for this Republic.
I'm tired of your faint praise for a committed Marxist while not differentiating the true cost of what Obama/Biden will mean to this Republic.

In short, I really don't care for this site. I call on all readers to boycott this site. Just go ahead and openly declare your Lib/Prog bias so that everyone knows where you stand.

McCain's problem is, with all the swirl around Palin and the various revelations, will anyone pay attention to the speeches?

Sure. The worst VP pick between 1973 and 2007 (Quayle) was followed up a few days later by the best acceptance speech during that period (Bush Sr.). They came from down 17 in the polls and won. Then again, they were running against Tank Dukakis.

McCain's problem is, with all the swirl around Palin and the various revelations, will anyone pay attention to the speeches?

Meanwhile, over at FiveThirtyEight, the figures are 296/240 electoral votes, Obama vs McCain, with Virginia and Ohio too close to call…

Those are projections, not polling results. I don't find that interesting at this stage.

What’s more important than the national head-to-head polls, of course, is the state-by-state polling. We don’t yet have a clear picture of where we are there.

Meanwhile, over at FiveThirtyEight, the figures are 296/240 electoral votes, Obama vs McCain, with Virginia and Ohio too close to call…

FiveThirtyEight had a slick record in calling the % votes during the primaries, and uses methods that are incomprehensible to ordinary folks like myself. The methodology is published, and available for criticism.

The monster lying under the calm waters is Obama’s voter registration drives, and shrinking Republican voter base. It is my impression that FiveThirthyEight in some fashion factors registered voters into its model.

Any comments on this site James?

given that Hurricane Gustav (now a tropical storm) wreaked havok with the opening day and that the surprise announcement of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate,

The hurricane did McCain a favor by only affecting one day and making that one day the day Bush was supposed to speak. McCain needs a good speech from Palin and a great speech from him, and then he should get a modest bounce.