Comments on: Off-Off Year Elections Help Warner, Hurt Bush?

By: Barry

Barry — Thu, 10 Nov 2005 14:52:47 +0000

Anderson: "At most, we can conclude that Bushâs coattails are about the same size as everyone elseâs."

Which is a decrease from 2004, which (IIRC) was a decrease from 2002). That's a nice trend.

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Thu, 10 Nov 2005 01:27:05 +0000

Bill: Kaine received exactly the percentage of the vote that the polls--internal Republican polls, even--showed. Kilgore ran a poor campaign, Kaine comes across as a reasonable guy, and he ran as a clone of a very popular governor.

By: Bill

Bill — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 23:42:23 +0000

Kaine and Kilgore were close enough in the polls to get Bush to come in and campaign for him. They wouldn't have done that if they didn't think Bush could help, and Bush's people wouldn't have let him go if they didn't think Kilgore could win. It looks like Bush hurt Kilgore rather than helped him. This does not bode well for republicans in 2006.

By: Robin

Robin — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 18:05:46 +0000

All this talk about Virginia, on Long Island where Republicans have always ruled, they were locked out in just about every contest... I think it portends well for next year.

By: Mark

Mark — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 16:14:10 +0000

I found it interesting that the Bolling and McDonnell received more votes in the lower ticket races than Kilgore received at the top of the ticket.

And I am learing Virginia is becoming to the GOP what Massachusetts is to the Dems. In Massachusetts, the voters will almost always vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, but the GOP has controlled the Governor's mansion for a long time. Same way in Virginia - voting for a Dem governor and GOP presidential candidates - with the exceptions of George Allen and Jim Gilmore.

By: Bithead

Bithead — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 15:57:11 +0000

Not sure I buy all this.
Look, the races we're hearing about are all from major markets which traditionally support Democrats regardless of any other factor.

I mean, my God, Man.... you've discovered that Democrats don't like GWB? STOP THE PRESSES!!

By: The Glittering Eye » Blog Archive » Election results

The Glittering Eye » Blog Archive » Election results — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 15:36:43 +0000

[...] James Joyner of Outside the Beltway analyzes the Virginia results and finds them a win for outgoing governor Mark Warner, a 2008 Dem presidential possible. [...]

By: zoe kentucky

zoe kentucky — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 15:19:44 +0000

While I agree that governor races are local and how they reflect on national party issues is questionable, however, Viriginia is an exception because national politics are local politics here.

By: Necromancer

Necromancer — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 15:06:42 +0000

It's all in the percentages -- races that were supposed to be close were easily won by the Dems, which in the Commonwealth is something for my team to crow about. Sorry, but Bush is drag on your numbers.

By: Anderson

Anderson — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 14:31:12 +0000

Inclined to agree with JJ. I can't blame people for wanting to read the tea leaves in an off year, and certainly the Repubs would be waving their victories if they'd won the mansion in VA or NJ. But there's just not that much to infer from these. At most, we can conclude that Bush's coattails are about the same size as everyone else's.

By: maddmatt

maddmatt — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 14:27:18 +0000

All politics are local!

By: Matthew Rinker

Matthew Rinker — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 14:18:40 +0000

While there are vast differences between Northern Virginia and the "new south state that encompasses almost all of the territory" it should be noted that there are other very liberal areas in the state. Charlottesville has generated a plethora of liberal candidates and Richmond is the home of the Governor-elect. It should also be noted that Northern Virginia - the liberal hot bed that you so describe - which has 4 Congressional Districts that encompass the area has only 1 Democrat serving in Congress (Districts 1, 10 and 11 are all represented by Republicans). The Tidewater area also only has 1 Democrat serving in Congress out of it 4 Congressional Districts.

So to say that Kaines comfortable win over Kilgore, and Deeds undecided race with McDonnell for Attorney General is not indicative of a decline of Republican strongholds on the state is laughable and partisan.

If you look further down the list the GOP lost two seats in the House of Delegates of VA.

By: PoliBlog: Politics is the Master Science

PoliBlog: Politics is the Master Science — Wed, 09 Nov 2005 12:50:47 +0000

More Election Coverage

News:

WaPo: Democrat Kaine Wins in Virginia
NYT: Republican Extends Democrats’ Mayoral Losing Streak in City
Reuters: Washington-state voters reject gas-tax repeal
Reuters: Texas voters add gay marriage ban to constitution
Via the AP: ...