Comments on: On to Michigan – McCain vs. Romney

By: yetanotherjohn

yetanotherjohn — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 17:30:36 +0000

As I said, and Legion is a prime example, those who wish the GOP ill will vote for the Kucinich equivalent. And as Legion's own post shows, that vote will get scattered among several different candidates and essentially wiped out as a result. Those who are acting with a more worthy purpose (such as who would make the best president even if I prefer democrats in general) and those independents who aren't trying to stick a spoke in the GOP wheel will be the ones who really tip the balance. FYI, poll out that show McCain leading Romney by 9 points in MI.

By: just me

just me — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 11:32:59 +0000

Legion that is exactly why I am not keen on open primaries.

Having an independant vote "for" somebody they like is one thing, but purposefully choosing a person to vote for to cause chaos in a party is just pure crappy behavior.

By: legion

legion — Thu, 10 Jan 2008 01:51:10 +0000

I dunno guys... what are the chances that Dems and Indys will instead vote for the GOP candidate they'd rather run against? I too find McCain to be the least-repugnant GOP hopeful, but I'd rather see (almost) anyone with a 'D' after their name in the WH next year than him. I know it's not the right thing to do, but if I lived in MI, I'd be tempted to vote for a complete nutter like RP or Huck, or maybe a no-hope like Freddie or Hunter just to keep the GOP in chaos for awhile longer.

By: Grewgills

Grewgills — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 23:48:46 +0000

To put another spin on it, if McCain does pull out a win in MI, where does that leave Romney?

With Thompson and Hunter.

By: yetanotherjohn

yetanotherjohn — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 23:06:25 +0000

To put another spin on it, if McCain does pull out a win in MI, where does that leave Romney?

By: Bruce Moomaw

Bruce Moomaw — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 22:29:04 +0000

I agree with YAJ -- keep in mind that McCain beat the snot out of Bush in Michigan in 2000 (his second, and if I remember correctly, last win), and did so with massive help from Independents in a race in which there WAS a Democratic contest and thus no temptation for bored Dems to cross over and vote for McCain.

However, beyond that the GOP race is still extremely murky -- I wouldn't even count Romney out, nor can I rule out the possibility of a three-way jam-up that would lead to the GOP convention going more than one ballot. Right now, however, I'm also willing to hang on McCain an extremely tentative tag as national GOP front-runner.

By: Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » Next Stop, Michigan

Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » Next Stop, Michigan — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 18:04:06 +0000

[...] James Joyner [...]

By: Dave Schuler

Dave Schuler — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 17:36:08 +0000

Good point, yaj, and you may be right. Another unforeseen secondary effect.

By: yetanotherjohn

yetanotherjohn — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 17:21:37 +0000

I predict a McCain win and here is why.

The Michigan primary allows for independents (and even democrats) to vote in the republican primary. Given that there is no democratic race (by virtue of the DNC) they will flood the republican primary.

Now who are they likely to want? Those who show up with ill intent for the GOP will find the most Kuchnik like candidate to vote for (fill in your own blank as to who that is). Those who are making a more honest selection will basically have the usual suspects to consider. I think they will break overwhelmingly for McCain.

If McCain hadn't won NH, it would be a different story. But with NH I think he pulls out a win in Michigan.

By: Dave Schuler

Dave Schuler — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 16:24:50 +0000

The state Democratic parties in Michigan and Florida have, presumably unknowingly, done quite a bit of damage to Hillary Clinton's campaign. As I've said before she'll miss those delegates.

My guess on the Republican Michigan primary is that it'll be an effective tie. McCain may win narrowly or he may lose narrowly.

On Feb 5 a lot will shake out in both parties. This cycle has been so goofy that I also expect there will be a call for a national primary (which I'm not certain would be a good thing).