OTB Election Prediction: Bush 286, Kerry 252
 |
James Joyner | Monday, November 1, 2004 |
The election is tomorrow (except for the nearly one fifth of the electorate who’ve already voted) and the polls aren’t any clearer than they were six months ago.
The RealClear Politics average has it Bush 48.5%, Kerry 46.8%, Nader 0.8% (Bush +1.7) for an imaginary three way race. Given that Nader is not on the ballot in several key states, it’s probably slightly closer than that and, regardless, well within the margin of error. Almost all the head-to-head polls have Bush up slightly but within the margin:
See RCP for links to each poll.
The state-by-state polls and resultant Electoral College projections are similarly sketchy with most of them showing both candidates short of the 270 Electors required. RCP’s collection of Battleground State Polls are all over the map in those critical contests. They show Bush with a 1.0% lead in Florida with polls ranging from an 8 point Bush lead to a 3 point Kerry lead; Kerry leading Ohio by 0.6% but almost entirely from a huge lead in the LAT poll; Kerry up 2.0% in Pennslyvania; Bush up 0.2% in Wisconsin but with no pattern in the individual polls; a tie in Iowa but with Bush slightly leading most of the polls; Bush winning New Mexico by 2.0%; Kerry leading New Hampshire by 1.3% but ahead in all polls; and Bush up 0.9% in Hawaii and leading in both polls. Several other “battlegrounds” are going comfortably to the party that won them in 2000.
The aggregators:
- RCP Electoral Count: Bush 227 - Kerry 207
Dave Leip: Bush 244 - Kerry 232 with most of the battlegrounds still “tossup.”
Dale’s Breakdown: Bush 259 - Kerry 238 with leaners included; Bush 222 - Kerry 186 otherwise.
Rasmussen: Bush 222 - Kerry 186
Scott Elliot’s Election Projection: Bush 286 - Kerry 252
Electoral-Vote.com: Kerry 283 - Bush 246
Slate’s Election Projection: Kerry 299 - Bush 239.
For the first time since I’ve been following presidential races (1980-on) I have no real sense of how the election is going to come out. I knew 2000 was going to be fairly close, but thought Bush would win the popular vote by 2% or so and carry the Electoral College with reasonable comfort, even though I was nervous going in. This time, it could well be a relative Electoral College blowout for either candidate. As implausible as the Slate numbers are, they could be right. Similarly, it’s not at all conceivable that Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Pennsylvania could swing to Bush and create the appearance of a blowout even in a race Bush won by 2% nationally.
While I’m rooting for that to happen, my instinct is another squeaker with most close states following their 2000 pattern. I predict that Bush will win a plurality of the popular vote (Bush 49%, Kerry 48%, and Nader 1%) and carry the Electoral College 286-252.*
Bush will carry all the states he won in 2000 minus New Hampshire but pick up New Mexico and Iowa. (Coincidentally, this is the same result envisioned by Scott Elliot.) The magnitude of the win is increased because reapportionment added 8 Electors to Bush’s column and took them from the Democratic column if 2000 repeated itself exactly.
*Caveat: Based on the traditional formula of the plurality winner carrying all electoral votes in a state. The possible faithless Elector in West Virginia and the small chance of Colorado splitting their Electoral votes is not factored in.
Update (ongoing): Others foolhardy enough to make predictions:
- Stephen Green Bush 286 - Kerry 252
- Kevin Aylward: Bush 291- Kerry 247
- Mark the Pundit: Bush 330- Kerry 208
- Les Jones has it Bush 278, Kerry 260 and a rather extensive roundup of blog and MSM predictions.
- Spoons: Kerry 304, Bush 234
- Blackfive: Bush 294 - (Kerry 244)
- Allan (JOTOS): Bush 301- Kerry 237
- Steve Bainbridge: Bush 296 - Kerry 242
- Steven Taylor: Bush 290 - Kerry 248 (identical to mine but with Hawaii going to Bush out of whimsy)
Feel free to comment below if you’ve got a prediction and/or send a TrackBack if you’ve got a prediction on your site.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia.
Follow James on FriendFeed | Twitter | Digg
- Obama 317, McCain 194
- McCain’s Final Stand
- Obama Wins Pennsylvania
- Obama Electoral Lead Widens as National Lead Shrinks
- Electoral College Tie: McCain 269, Obama 269
- What’s On Voters’ Minds?
- Election Prediction: Obama 325, McCain 213 (Updated)
- Racism (or Sexism) At the Margins
- Obama’s Landslide in Perspective
- 2008 Election ‘Regular Season’ Kickoff
- PoliBlog linked with Guessing the EC
- Mark the Pundit linked with Electoral College Prediction
- Just On The Other Side linked with Election Projections...
- Les Jones's Blog linked with Bloggers, Place Your Bets on the 2004 Elections
- small dead animals linked with Prediction Roundup
- Overtaken by Events linked with OTBE Electoral Prediction - 291-247 For Bush
- You Big Mouth, You! linked with Prediction 2004
- Overtaken by Events linked with OTBE Electoral Prediction - 291-247 For Bush
- Peaktalk linked with ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTIONS
- Go Dubya! linked with Prediction
- my thoughts, without the penny charge :: political :: linked with My Predictions
- Electric Venom linked with So, You Want A Prediction?
- Secure Liberty linked with Official Prediction
- The World Around You linked with My Election Predictions
- Crack the Bell linked with Electoral Vote Predictor
- Blogs of War linked with Election Alert: Blogs of War Prediction
- Walter In Denver linked with Prognosticators
- Walter In Denver linked with Prognosticators
- ProfessorBainbridge.com linked with Election Predictions
- RIGHT ON RED >> linked with My Prediction(s)
- PoliBlog linked with The Final Slice: It's the Election Day Toast-O-Meter
- Priorities & Frivolities linked with Who Will Win?
- ~Neophyte Pundit~ linked with Election night Results...
- PoliBlog linked with Toast Trumps the Crystal Ball
- dustbury.com linked with And the inevitable prediction
- Les Jones Blog linked with Winner of the Election Prediction
I'm still thinking Wisconsin and at least 3 from NH.
Anyway, the question boils down to this: Are we Aussies or are we Spaniards?
MacGehee... love your point! I hope we're Aussies!
i am getting very nervous now!!!i pray you guys are right!!really,,i am praying
But how does the Redskin loss in yesterday's game play into the mix? Accordin' to some yahoo on TV, supposedly if the 'Skins win, the incumbent wins, if the 'skins lose, the incumbent loses. Up to this point, I figured Bush had the edge, but now I jes' don't know. Sportin' trends are more reliable than astrologists.
I'm calling this one for Bush, 300-238.
(Obligatory map here.)
You knew I wouldn't agree with you on this, James! However, I think we agree on everything but Ohio!
Kerry wins in a squeaker!
Kerry = 49.4% of the popular vote, 272 electoral votes, winning Hawaii, California,
Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland,
Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont,
New Hampshire, Maine, and DC)
Bush = 49.1% of the popular vote, 266 electoral votes
I predict Bush 296 (i.e. your 286 plus WI). That's every state he won in 2000 (except NH, which I think may be contrarian) plus the states that were extremely close: Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Key factors: voters don't trust Kerry on foreign policy, and GOP GOTV.
Details and 2000 data at pajamasphere.com/election2004/prediction.html
For those who are predicting a major swing to Bush: add NH plus the remaining 3 swing states (MI, MN, PA). That's 348. (I'm extremely skeptical of polls in Hawaii, though if correct they could offer another 4. I also doubt that NJ is actually in play.)
Wow, your prediction is exactly right. Good job!
Comments are Closed
