Comments on: OTB Election Prediction: Bush 286, Kerry 252

By: Les Jones Blog

Les Jones Blog — Thu, 11 Nov 2004 14:11:24 +0000

Winner of the Election Prediction
http://www.lesjones.com/posts/001431.shtml The final electoral vote tally is Bush 286, Kerry 252. Three bloggers predicted the results: Election Projection, Outside the Beltway, and VodkaPundit. The tiebreaker is the date of the prediction. Outside th...

By: dustbury.com

dustbury.com — Wed, 03 Nov 2004 20:35:03 +0000

And the inevitable prediction
See also Les Jones's Blogger Roundup. (Update, 3 November, 2:25 pm: Assuming 286-252 holds up, as it appears it will, the Prescience Award goes jointly to James Joyner at...

By: PoliBlog

PoliBlog — Wed, 03 Nov 2004 18:32:59 +0000

Toast Trumps the Crystal Ball
Paul of Wizbang points to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball which called the race to be 269-269 and got all the states right except Florida and Wisconsin. (And I don;t have a research institute, just a messy office!)

However, the Toast-o-Meter came clos...

By: ~Neophyte Pundit~

~Neophyte Pundit~ — Wed, 03 Nov 2004 14:41:24 +0000

Election night Results...
My hat is off to Electoral Projection and to Outside the Beltway for correctly calling the electoral count: 286 Bush 252 Kerry! This is an outright victory for Bush/Cheney! The Ohio Secretary of State has declared that it is statistically...

By: shepshep

shepshep — Wed, 03 Nov 2004 13:24:21 +0000

Wow, your prediction is exactly right. Good job!

By: Priorities & Frivolities

Priorities & Frivolities — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 16:28:50 +0000

Who Will Win?
George W. Bush, 286-252 electoral votes. As everyone knows, and as Sam Wang meticulously demonstrates, it will all come down to Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio....

By: PoliBlog

PoliBlog — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 15:12:21 +0000

The Final Slice: It's the Election Day Toast-O-Meter
--Rounding-up, analyzing and handicapping the 2004 election--

Texas Toast or French Toast?Tracking the race to the White House.

FINALLY: It's Time to Serve the Toast

After a campaign season that started in 1812 (ok, it actually started in ea...

By: Pajamasphere

Pajamasphere — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 11:33:17 +0000

I predict Bush 296 (i.e. your 286 plus WI). That's every state he won in 2000 (except NH, which I think may be contrarian) plus the states that were extremely close: Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Key factors: voters don't trust Kerry on foreign policy, and GOP GOTV.

Details and 2000 data at pajamasphere.com/election2004/prediction.html

For those who are predicting a major swing to Bush: add NH plus the remaining 3 swing states (MI, MN, PA). That's 348. (I'm extremely skeptical of polls in Hawaii, though if correct they could offer another 4. I also doubt that NJ is actually in play.)

By: RIGHT ON RED >>

RIGHT ON RED >> — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 07:14:36 +0000

My Prediction(s) Hey, slow down that bandwagon! I wanna hop on board. Here's my prediction, an even 300 for Bush: Here's what I fear. Let's face it folks; it could happen - 299 for Kerry: I want to say Hawaii is going Bush, just for fun, but why pile o...

By: ProfessorBainbridge.com

ProfessorBainbridge.com — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 04:58:04 +0000

Election Predictions
President:Bush: 48.9% - 296 EC votesKerry: 48.1% - 242 EC votesOthers: 3%Senate:Republicans: 53Democrats: 46Other: 1House:Republicans: 231Democrats: 204 More predictions from Stephen Green (with a roundup of others), James Joyner (ditto), and various R...

By: Walter In Denver

Walter In Denver — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 03:56:19 +0000

Prognosticators Collecting predictions for tomorrow's vote. Jeralyn, Talkleft - Kerry 52%, Bush 47%, other 1% Jesse Walker, "It's going to be close, but I think Kerry is going to take it." Jeff Goldstein - "Bush 270 plus; screw John Kerry."...

By: Walter In Denver

Walter In Denver — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 03:56:03 +0000

By: Blogs of War

Blogs of War — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 03:55:14 +0000

Election Alert: Blogs of War Prediction
I have a few different scenarios mapped out and while predictions in this race are risky sitting on the fence isn't much fun. I have a feeling that analysts can throw conventional wisdom out the window for this one. Unfortunately, that's all we real...

By: Don Baker

Don Baker — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 02:46:36 +0000

You knew I wouldn't agree with you on this, James! However, I think we agree on everything but Ohio!

Kerry wins in a squeaker!

Kerry = 49.4% of the popular vote, 272 electoral votes, winning Hawaii, California,
Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland,
Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont,
New Hampshire, Maine, and DC)

Bush = 49.1% of the popular vote, 266 electoral votes

By: Crack the Bell

Crack the Bell — Tue, 02 Nov 2004 01:45:53 +0000

Electoral Vote Predictor
Outside the Beltway has the definitive roundup of other predictions and polling.