I guess I am putting a fair amount of the change to do with the democratic party's actions. Not accomplishing much when they got congress, wallowing in pork and ethics problems, gutter fight for the presidential nomination, disenfranchising Michigan and Florida, making claims about the surge not working, etc. I think all this helped the political picture for the GOP. Has it helped more or less than nominating McCain? Your mileage may vary.

I don’t think we are disagreeing. In 2007 (or more accurately after 2006 election), the conventional wisdom was that the democrats would win the 2008 presidential election. You have a sitting president who is term limited and has low approval numbers, the VP was not going to run, the GOP was getting beaten up on Iraq, etc. Every portent was that 2008 was the democratic party’s year to shine.

Yes, we agree on that. What I disagreed with was your claim that the turn around had more to do with the Democrats than the Republicans. I think the Republican nomination of McCain as at least as important as anything the Democrats did, probably more so.

I don't think we are disagreeing. In 2007 (or more accurately after 2006 election), the conventional wisdom was that the democrats would win the 2008 presidential election. You have a sitting president who is term limited and has low approval numbers, the VP was not going to run, the GOP was getting beaten up on Iraq, etc. Every portent was that 2008 was the democratic party's year to shine.

I agree that McCain is better positioned to reap the benefit than say Romney. But the fact is that we are looking at polls that show the Republican candidate is solidifying blue states trending purple (e.g. Virginia) and even going after some red states that are tending purple.

The fact that any republican is able to be making any progress against the political headwinds is the story. The fact that in its collective wisdom the GOP may have selected the candidate most able to make progress against the headwinds and the democrats' contest is shaping up to block those headwinds is just part of how it is all coming about.

justme,

I agree that it is in no way going to be a cake walk as things lie now. But, I can see a series of events that could lead to a 1972, 1984 or 1988 type electoral college blowout. I can also see a series of events that would lead to a democratic EV blowout (think 1964). The most likely scenarios are as usual in the middle. But realistic and even probable scenarios are emerging that give the Republicans the win. That was not the case for 2007.

1) Going into the year, every political sign and portent said this was going to be the democrats year. That these polls show the republicans even have a chance indicate that perhaps that is not so. I suspect that has more to do with the democrats than it does with the republicans.

I disagree, I think John McCain was the only Republican candidate who would have had a shot at any of the top 3 Democrats this cycle, and at the beginning of the year McCain was in 4th place. While certainly the struggle between Clinton and Obama has probably turned some voters off to either candidate, I doubt many would have been moved towards Romney, Huckabee or Giuliani.

I think this is a good observation. If the democrats weren't having such a close race and beating up on each other, things may be different. But I think the uncertainty alone in the democratic side makes the GOP look better.

Also, McCain at least can't be painted into the "far right" wing of the party, McCain actually sits very close to the majority of the electorate on the political spectrum-closer than either Obama or Clinton sit.

I still think this year is going to be tough for the GOP-but I think the race for the white house may not be the cake walk some democrats think it will be.

1) Going into the year, every political sign and portent said this was going to be the democrats year. That these polls show the republicans even have a chance indicate that perhaps that is not so. I suspect that has more to do with the democrats than it does with the republicans.

2) It is one thing to talk about states that haven't gone for a republican in 20 years, it is another to remember why the states went for a republican 20 years ago. The democrats are trying to decide between putting up liberal or liberaler as their candidate. Think of the McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis getting steam rolled. Though it sends the left into convulsion fits when you mention it, this is a center right country. The democrats do best when they can persuade people their candidate is at least as close to the electorate than the republican candidate. When the nominee tilts to far to the left, states that haven't voted for a republican in 20 years come into play.