PREDICTING THE ECONOMY
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James Joyner | Wednesday, July 30, 2003 |
What do Robert Samuelson, Brad DeLong, Stephen Green, and I have in common? We’re baffled by the current economy and the effects political decisions may have on it.
Brad has published a lot more articles than I have, though.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
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I keep telling you: it' a Weird EconomyTM. What more do you need to know?
True--I meant to link to one of those, actually. Although, really, one needs to have some fancy graphs and mind boggling equations to be taken seriously.
Ummmm Mr. PhD guy. (Guess that is DOCTOR PhD guy)
Can you tell when in history the "experts" knew what the hell was going on in the economy?
And I am not just being flip.
As Zig Ziglar puts it, "Economists have accurately predicted 9 of the last 3 recessions."
Economists are far better at telling us why things happened in the PAST then they are telling us what will happen in the future. Which leads me to my question...
If all these "experts" the economists, the PhD, the analysts etc. know so much, how come none of them made a killing in one of the markets and are spending their days sitting on a beach in the Caribbean right now?
Maybe I'm just a simpleton. But we had a recession and some uncertain times. Now we are bouncing back. To expect every economic indicator to be pointing in the same direct during a transitional period is silly. (IMO)
And while I ain't got no PhD I can hazard a guess why the job market is sluggish. When Congress and the President go out of their way to pay people extra to not work.... They won't.
But I'm a simpleton.
Paul
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