Prognostication Scorekeeping
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Alex Knapp | Monday, December 29, 2008 |
I’m in the process of preparing some 2009 predictions, in the hopes of providing a good opportunity for embarrassment. While I was doing that, though, I thought I’d go ahead and look back at my predictions for 2008 and see whether I should even bother. Here are my results:
Predictions that came to pass
- Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination, and proceed to defeat John McCain in the general election.
- President Bush will not be impeached by the House of Representatives’ — nor will any past or former administration official be tried for war crimes.
- Ron Paul will take at least third place in several primaries, much to the surprise of many, and will not drop out of the race until the last vote is counted. His candidacy will lead to no lasting change in the Republican Party.
- The United States will have 100,000 or more troops in Iraq at year’s end. The trend toward lower body counts will continue but civil society will remain an elusive goal.
- Pervez Musharraf will not be President of Pakistan by the end of the year.
- London will continue to surpass New York City as the financial capital of the world.
- Osama bin Laden will remain at large.
- Iran will not possess any nuclear weapons at the end of the year.
- Roe v. Wade will not be overturned, even if there is an opportunity to do so.
- The Dark Knight will be the highest grossing motion picture of the year.
Predictions that did not come to pass
- The New England Patriots will beat the Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl, becoming the first 19-0 team in NFL history.
- At least one Division I NCAA or NFL football team currently in the middle of the standings will stop punting on fourth down and consequently will end up as one of the top five teams by the end of the season.
- The writers’ strike will last at least until the Screen Actor’s Guild contract expires.
Half-Right / Half-Wrong
- Prominent Republican politicians will buck the conservative orthodoxy and take climate change seriously, relegating anti-climate change forces to the political fringe.
Obviously, anti-climate change Republicans are not in the political fringe, though John McCain backed a cap and trade system quite strongly during the election and earned some GOP establishment kudos for doing so.
Not Enough Data
- In many localities, more law enforcement resources will be directed to locating and detaining illegal immigrants. Violent crime will rise as a result.
Trying to decide whether this is true would probably take a doctoral thesis, which made it a rather stupid, unquantifiable prediction.
Final Tally
Well, I had 10 right, 3 wrong, and 1 half-right. I’m going to throw out the illegal immigration prediction because it’s impossible to quantify right now which gives me a final score of 10.5/14, or a 75% accuracy rate. That and a nickel will leave me scrounging for 70 more cents to buy a can of soda.
About the Author: Alex has a B.S. in Biochemistry from Worcester Polytechnic Institute and a J.D. from the University of Kansas School of Law. He has been published in the Kansas City Star, TCS Daily, and Comic Book Resources. He joined the staff of OTB in June 2006. Additionally, he’s been writing at Heretical Ideas since October, 2001, and also reviews cigars at Cigar Jack's Cigar News and Reviews.
- Prognostication Scorekeeping
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- 2008 Predictions Scorecard (James Joyner)
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- 2008 Predictions Scorecard (Dave Schuler)
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- A Question About Bonuses and Bailouts
- Republican Purity and Conservatism
- SNL Obama China Skit
- Journalistic Ethics and Illegally Acquired Documents
- National Debt Hysteria?
- Educating Illegal Immigrants
- Caption Contest
- Nathalie Blanchard Facebook Smile Leaves Her Depressed
Your eighth prediction under “Predictions that came to pass” is unverifiable. I think it's true of the seventh one as well.
Dave,
On #8 perhaps, but the IAEA says no, and all available evidence says no. Do you have evidence to the contrary?
On #7, he's "at large" until he's found, even if he's dead right now.
I think you're reading the IAEA too kindly. They just say that they don't know of any not that there aren't any.
"The United States will have 100,000 or more troops in Iraq at year’s end. The trend toward lower body counts will continue but civil society will remain an elusive goal."
I would say that prediction is more than fifty percent wrong, but since the definition and criterion for civil society are undefined you can make out of your prediction what you want.
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