PROJECTIONS
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James Joyner | Monday, January 19, 2004 |
Dodd Harris presents a red-blue map gleaned from Election Projection showing Bush winning 56.59% of the popular vote to 42.41% for his yet-unnamed Democratic opponent, resulting in an Electoral College blowout of 449-89. The projection is amusing but highly improbable.
The fellow behind the site is an unabashed Bush enthusiast with no obvious credentials, but his methodology is interesting. The flaw would seem to be this rather odd initial assumption:
Start with a baseline figure of 49.5% Bush, 49.5% Dem, 1.0% third party – obviously this calculation assumes Nader won’t run in 2004.
So, we start with the assumption that Bush has equal chances to win in Utah and the District of Columbia?
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
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Maybe he's a Bayesian who believes in incredibly uninformative priors. :-)
In general if a Republican presidential canidate gets close to 55% of the two party vote, he will win over 400 electoral votes. (see e. g.; Eisenhower, 1956 or G. H. W. Bush, 1988) Based on the recent head to head polling results that would be the outcome at present.
My own sense is that in the end Bush will get 330 to 350 electoral votes by winning all, or nearly all, the states he did in 2000 and adding some marginal states such as Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
"So, we start with the assumption that Bush has equal chances to win in Utah and the District of Columbia?"
Oh, but you misunderstand the formula! The baseline assumption is that, given strictly equal positive and negative sentiments concerning Bush, he'll win an equal amount of the national vote. I go on to determine an adjustment factor based on the polling data. This adjustment is added to Bush's total from 2000 for each state. That's how I project who will win each state and by how much.
For more information I suggest reading this:
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.html#formulaexplanation
And, for an inspiring look at the possibilities read California Dreamin':
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.html#calpolls011804
Earl,
Thanks for the affirmation!
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