Comments on: PROJECTIONS http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/projections/ Online Journal of Politics and Foreign Affairs Thu, 26 Nov 2009 12:23:30 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: Chris Lawrence http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/projections/comment-page-1/#comment-10804 Chris Lawrence Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4687#comment-10804 Maybe he's a Bayesian who believes in incredibly uninformative priors. :-) Maybe he's a Bayesian who believes in incredibly uninformative priors. :-)

]]> By: Earl Sutherland http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/projections/comment-page-1/#comment-10805 Earl Sutherland Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4687#comment-10805 In general if a Republican presidential canidate gets close to 55% of the two party vote, he will win over 400 electoral votes. (see e. g.; Eisenhower, 1956 or G. H. W. Bush, 1988) Based on the recent head to head polling results that would be the outcome at present. My own sense is that in the end Bush will get 330 to 350 electoral votes by winning all, or nearly all, the states he did in 2000 and adding some marginal states such as Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In general if a Republican presidential canidate gets close to 55% of the two party vote, he will win over 400 electoral votes. (see e. g.; Eisenhower, 1956 or G. H. W. Bush, 1988) Based on the recent head to head polling results that would be the outcome at present.

My own sense is that in the end Bush will get 330 to 350 electoral votes by winning all, or nearly all, the states he did in 2000 and adding some marginal states such as Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

]]> By: The Blogging Caesar http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/projections/comment-page-1/#comment-10806 The Blogging Caesar Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4687#comment-10806 "So, we start with the assumption that Bush has equal chances to win in Utah and the District of Columbia?" Oh, but you misunderstand the formula! The baseline assumption is that, given strictly equal positive and negative sentiments concerning Bush, he'll win an equal amount of the <i>national</i> vote. I go on to determine an adjustment factor based on the polling data. This adjustment is added to Bush's total from 2000 <i>for each state</i>. That's how I project who will win each state and by how much. For more information I suggest reading this: http://www.electionprojection.com/index.html#formulaexplanation And, for an inspiring look at the possibilities read California Dreamin': http://www.electionprojection.com/index.html#calpolls011804 "So, we start with the assumption that Bush has equal chances to win in Utah and the District of Columbia?"

Oh, but you misunderstand the formula! The baseline assumption is that, given strictly equal positive and negative sentiments concerning Bush, he'll win an equal amount of the national vote. I go on to determine an adjustment factor based on the polling data. This adjustment is added to Bush's total from 2000 for each state. That's how I project who will win each state and by how much.

For more information I suggest reading this:
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.html#formulaexplanation

And, for an inspiring look at the possibilities read California Dreamin':
http://www.electionprojection.com/index.html#calpolls011804

]]> By: The Blogging Caesar http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/projections/comment-page-1/#comment-10807 The Blogging Caesar Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000 /?p=4687#comment-10807 Earl, Thanks for the affirmation! --- Earl,
Thanks for the affirmation!

---

]]>