Elephants in the Bluegrass and Outside the Beltway have noted the latest polling showing Mitch McConnell behind Bruce Lunsford. I agree with points they both make. Generally speaking, it's WAY too early to make any speculations on November. I think...

"Lunsford is deeply unpopular with many partisan Democrats in Kentucky." He ran and loss for the Democratic nomination for governor twice and endorsed GOP nominee and eventual governor Ernie Fletcher in the 2003 race, which earned him the enmity of liberal activists. However, he's the kind of moderate businessman that has a shot of winning as a Democrat in a conservative-leaning state, if swing voters want to stick it to the GOP establishment.

Most of those Democrats will come around, for McConnell is about as establishmentarian as they get. They may see Lunsford as something of a DINO, but at least he's a Democrat.

Also, one poll this early is hard to put to much stock in. The democrat has just gone through a contested primary and won. The results are close. Could it just be a little post-primary bump? Or could it be that people aren't happy with how the GOP is spending money in the senate?