Comments on: Reinhart and Rogoff on the Financial Crisis

By: Barack Obama’s Rhetorical Sleight of Hand

Barack Obama’s Rhetorical Sleight of Hand — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 17:30:17 +0000

[...] his stimulus plan. After all most are forecasting that the recession will last through 2009. If the article by Reinhart and Rogoff is correct it could last longer than that. Prof. Mankiw suggests that a given level of unemployment [...]

By: Steve Verdon

Steve Verdon — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 17:12:24 +0000

That said, I find this piece particularly strange. It is all about average downturns when we know we are already past them. They seem it have given us the only possible sort of "disprovable" prediction, that is, one that is already wrong in the present.

No, you need to re-read it and more carefully. The article is about financial crises and not necessarily one's just in the U.S. (i.e. the last one was in 1929/1930). They are looking at financial crises around the world, at developed countries at developing countries, and at large and small countries. As such, it isn't simply about the average recession.

Gosh, how could that happen ... the average recession doesn't do that, does it?

In absolute numbers that might be true, but in terms of ratios or relative to the labor force it isn't that bad. It is like noting that now a can of soda has never cost so much as it does today. Well yeah, can we like...you know adjust for inflation?

By: odograph

odograph — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 23:45:52 +0000

We must always start with the simple truth that no one can tell us the future. Lots of people try, and we always listen, but we don't want to go too nuts believing our own or anyone else's BS. That said, I find this piece particularly strange. It is all about average downturns when we know we are already past them. They seem it have given us the only possible sort of "disprovable" prediction, that is, one that is already wrong in the present. Example:

MarketWatch - 4 hours ago The economy lost 2.6 million jobs in 2008, the worst since 1945.

Gosh, how could that happen ... the average recession doesn't do that, does it? (Overall these folks need a quiet weekend at the lake with Fooled By Randomness)