The GOP had just about everything imaginable working against them this past election and just barely lost their majority. They might need just about everything imaginable going their way next time to win it back.

Luckily, as Bush said the other day, the situation in Iraq will be totally peachy by then--I would be surprised to see any Democrats win, since Bush's brave leadership will insure that Republicans get tons of votes.

Neither Dem can be dismissed out of hand; that Senate seat surely leans Repub, but shouldn't be treated as a lock, not this far out.

I agree that Mississippi should be safe, but am less sure about Nebraska or Oklahoma. Nebraska elected all GOP for the house and governor, but returned a democrat to the senate in 2006. Oklahoma had 4 out of 5 in the house go GOP (with the 5th having a last name to conjure with in that state), but sent a democrat to the governors chair. If the GOP puts Osborne up in Nebraska and Watts up in Oklahoma, they are likely to flip.

New Mexico will be a tough state to hold. As will Minn., NH and Colorado. I suspect Coleman will be able to pull it off, NH is also likely to remain. I would be most worried about Allard in Colorado.

Virginia will be tough, but my gut says unless Mark Warner decides to run it will go for the GOP.

South Dakota has a decent chance of going to the GOP if the right candidate can be recruited.

I would also worry about Ford running in Tennessee.

If Levin retires, Michigan might be a pick up opportunity (especially if their economy doesn't pick up in the next couple of years).

Collins in Maine and Smith of Oregon should also be watched as GOP in blue states. Likewise, Baucus in Montana and Pryor in Arkansas are possibilities for the opposite reasons.

In 2006, the democrats had just about a perfect recruiting season for the senate (Mark Warner in Virginia is the only 'better candidate' I can think of). Conversely, in 2006 the GOP had one of its worse recruiting seasons (Steele in Maryland was the only bright spot I can think of). It will be interesting to see what the 2008 recruiting season will be like. There is less advantage to one party (as opposed to 2006 where the GOP not losing seats would have been bucking the trend), so both parties should see a good chance at recruiting their respective top prospects.

When you add it all up, its not hard to see either party gaining, losing or no change. Retirements and who tops the ticket will have a big impact. All else being equal, I would predict a 50-50 senate for 2008 which would mean either another "Jumpin Jeff" to flip the senate or the VP casting the decided vote.