Second Quarter GDP Revised Downwards
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Steve Verdon | Friday, September 26, 2008 |
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is revising downwards its estimate for how much the economy grew in the second quarter from 3.3% to 2.8%. This is not good news in the middle of a financial crisis, needless to say.
The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the preliminary estimates issued last month. In the preliminary estimates, the increase in real GDP was 3.3 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3).
And, lets try to keep things in perspective, 2.8% growth is not bad and it means that it is unlikely we are currently in a recession.
About the Author: Steve has a B.A. in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles and attended graduate school at The George Washington University, leaving school shortly before staring work on his dissertation when his first child was born. He works in the energy industry and prior to that worked at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Division of Price Index and Number Research.
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Well, considering that inflation is currently above 5%, I'm not so sure I'd agree...
Steve, not to nitpick, but I am in construction... and for us? It is a recession. Not necessarily(sp?) complaining, we have had a good long run, just whining... especially when someone says, "Hey, the economy isn't so bad..."
I want to say, "Easy for you to say!"
So, I will be getting laid off in the next week or 2, be laid off for 2-3 months (until the next phase starts up) then, hopefully, back to work.
Construstion is a funny business, we work ourselves OUT of a job. The harder we work, the more efficient we are, the sooner we are unemployed. Hopefully, because we work harder, we are the first to be called back. it doesn't always work out that way.
And in this economy... I could be out a long time. I hope my savings last (a little of every paycheck) otherwise, I am screwed.
Unless the word "recession" is given an made-up new definition under which it becomes a synonym for "somebody thinks these aren't great times," we definitely have not yet been shown to be in a recession. At worst (or, I suppose, at best for those who are doom-sayers), we might possibly be retroactively determined to have been in a recession during this third quarter some time in the first quarter of 2009, when we have the stats for both the third and fourth quarter of 2008.
Well there is a clear cut definition for Recession. But we don't have a clear definition for 'The Fundamentals of the economy are strong.'
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