Bloomberg:

Consumer spending rose in May as benefits from the Obama administration’s stimulus plan spurred a jump in American incomes, a sign that efforts to revive the economy are starting to pay off.

But you know, feel free to "feel" differently.

This is pretty much what I was going to say, and said much better.

I think the big problem with the stimulus package is that the vast majority of it wasn't stimulus-it was pet projects dressed up to be stimulus so it could get passed without any real consideration.

I was never a fan of the stimulus bill, and I am still not a fan, and the sad thing is i think our country took on all that debt in the name of stimulus and has only made things worse.

Herb, I'll try and let it go if you will.

As Charles says the rapid move to left has frightened everyone except for government workers and retired professors.

Um... What about all the leftists who actually welcomed and embraced"the rapid move to left?"

Now before Charles can make some more unfair accusations, let me just say this: Being frightened by "the rapid move to left" is a completely legitimate position.

However, it did not cause the recession to begin with (as some of the more loony wingers claimed months ago) nor did it cause the stimulus to fail anymore than the NBA playoffs were decided in Game 3.

The game is not over.

Example: I was just reading in the newspaper today about how ARRA funds are finally...finally...going to lead to much-needed (and oft-stalled) road construction in Aurora, CO. Work will begin in the fall, so judging its effectiveness two days into July is a bit premature.

This project has not created a single job...yet.

Besides, job creation is not the be all, end all. If we wanted to just create jobs, let's hire a bunch of unemployed people to test out that 100 Monkeys hypothesis. Give em a type writer, some paper, and see how long it takes them to write Romeo and Juliet.

Creating useful jobs that provide some net benefit to society is the key. And that takes time.

I can tell you this: In the case of my road example, that work wouldn't have gotten the greenlight were it not for the ARRA.

The Stimulus Package as it passed was just a form of graft. You really want to stimulate the economy? Cut taxes and stop creating uncertainty for the future. That's what is killing the economy more than anything else. And every further application of so-called stimulus is only going to make it worse.

Oh, as for many economists (read Paul Krugman) saying it was not big enough, reread the above first and then note that this is just another variant of the old saw that socialism only failed every time before because it wasn't done right, but darn it we'll do it right this time. As for "maybe it would be worse without the so-called stimulus," well maybe it would have been better had John McCain had won. Anyone can play that game and it adds nothing to the discussion.

It's possible that it's working, but that it was too small. Many economists were suggesting that that what was passed would not be enough.

Businesses see an Administration and Congress that's bad for them. Time to hunker down and minimize risk. Our system needs that risk taking to advance forward. Heck, even those who might take a risk are going to reap less of the rewards so why bother? Who wants to keep less of the profits and then only be able to buy a GM hybrid instead of a Cadillac?

Another problem is the continued uncertainty surrounding energy. Is Waxman trying to kill the economy? I think he is. We need to drill for oil, knock off doing the silly green stuff that doesn't work, expand natural gas infrastructure, and figure out how to make nuclear work for less money. Our new energy policy will handicap the economy for years if not generations.

Stimulus? These clowns are making things worse.

So the stimulus money isn't being spent, and we're on track for the scenario where stimulus money wasn't spent. Huh.

Except that isn't true. We are now ever further off (in the bad way) the "no stimulus" prediction.

Right now we are on track for the “no stimulus” scenario. Further, we have evidence that very little stimulus has been spent so far.

So the stimulus money isn't being spent, and we're on track for the scenario where stimulus money wasn't spent. Huh.

I think the problem is that you are saying that the "plan" didn't work, not that the "implementation" didn't work. The problem isn't that spending isn't working, it's that the spending isn't happening.

When you say "the stimulus isn't working", most people I except will take that to mean the spending isn't having it's predicted effect and therefore the plan was bad, not to mean that the plan isn't being implemented, and thus is having the same effect as having no plan at all.

To hang your hat (as Steve has for three or four recycled posts now) on a prediction as if it were an established fact is embarassingly absurd.

There are two possible explanations as to what is going on here.

1) The initial forecast for unemployment was too optimistic.

2) The forecast was fine, but the stimulus is just not doing what it is supposed to do: create jobs.

Why do I believe 2 vs. 1?

LOL, which interpretation most validates your preexisting beliefs, and which gives you the most blog fodder?

(Missing a counterfactual again.)

Look at the bright side. There are something like 140 million employed in the civilian labor force. That means 140 million jobs have been saved!