Correct me if I am wrong, the Sadrists have pretty much went to ground a week or so before the first US reinforcements were actually deployed

...because they knew the surge was coming. Does that alter the calculation at all?

Somehow, I missed this article in the Big Media. I wonder why?
CAMP ADDER, Iraq, March 6, 2007 — Children, community leaders and Coalition Forces attended the opening of a reverse osmosis water-treatment plant in Al Kuaam, Iraq, a small rur...

Right now it seems to me [I know a massive qualifier] that the type of violence going on in Baghdad has changed in composition. Previously, it was Shi'ite on Sunni tit for tat, with the Sunni using car bombs as their preferred weapon of choice, and the Shi'ites the power drill. The current violence seems to have a marked Sunni fingerprint to it --- large scale mass casualty explosive events.

So does Sadr or his leadership cadre have sufficient control over most elements of the Mahdi Army to actually have them ramp down their operations, demonstrate that the government and the US still can not stop the Sunni car bombings, and further delegitimatize the government?

Then again, the recent car bombings in Baghdad have been quite deadly

Let's see...
- Advertise for weeks that we're sending troops in to "pacify" Sadr City - check
- Administration notes drop in violence and deaths in Sadr City - check
- Administration and MSM fail to connect dots to increase in violence and deaths in other cities during "surge" - check
- Claim vindication of "strategy", demand two more Friedmans before pulling troops out - TBD
- Continue cycle until next election; blame Democrats - TBD

Excellent, indeed. But not news; it has been going on for some time, certainly for more than a month. I hope you don’t get the news from ABC.
Yes, you should be concerned about what may happen if American troops leave, but you should be more concerned about the many Americans that have not taken the excellent “news” and that are willing to do anything to prevent an American victory.

Look here:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_casualties.htm

Scroll down to the bottom where you see US casualties by month. Feel free to pretend that represents progress, but the fact are not on your side.

Now look here:

http://icasualties.org/oif/IraqiDeaths.aspx

scroll down and look at the bottom graph on the left hand side. This is the number of civilian casualties per month. Again, feel free to try and spin this as progress.