2008 Election County-By-County
After George W. Bush won the 2000 election, despite having received substantially fewer votes nationwide than Al Gore, many of us took great comfort in this famous map, showing the election results county-by-county: [caption id="attachment_27108" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="2000 Election County-By-County Map"][/caption] In 2004, Bush won re-election by a majority -- but John Kerry nearly took it anyway because of a close call ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on November 5, 2008 15:54
Election Prediction: Obama 325, McCain 213 (Updated)
After nearly four years of watching this campaign unfold, it's about to wrap up. There are another thirty-six hours of so of campaigning left and probably no more significant polls to be released. So, it's time to go on the record and predict the outcome. Others' Projections: An Obama Rout RealClearPolitics: Obama 353, McCain 185 (with Tossups) Dave Leip's Atlas: Obama 318, McCain ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on November 3, 2008 07:25
Electoral College: Two Weeks Out
Stephen Green runs his periodic Electoral College wargame and has some bittersweet news for Republicans: "McCain is more competitive than he was last week — but only enough to turn a blow-out into a drubbing." [caption id="attachment_26443" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Electoral College Projection: Obama 317, McCain 221"][/caption] To put this in sporting terms, McCain is down three scores at the two minute warning. As ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on October 21, 2008 13:27
Killing the Electoral College?
McCain-Palin currently have a very slim lead over Obama-Biden in virtually every national poll (see RealClearPolitics and Pollster.com). The Electoral College is too close to call. RCP has it 273-265 for Obama (without toss-ups) while Electoral-Vote.com has it 257-247 for McCain with Virginia and Pennsylvania too close to call. Obviously, there's still a lot of campaigning to do and dramatic events ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on September 16, 2008 09:29
Race Still Tied After Conventions
The presidential race was essentially tied going into the party conventions. As expected, Barack Obama got a small bounce, somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 points, from the Democratic convention. As expected, McCain is getting a bounce from his convention. The wild card factor, the announcement of Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate and her subsequent convention speech, seems thus ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on September 7, 2008 08:02
Bob Barr Conference Call
I was invited to participate in Libertarian Party presidential nominee Bob Barr's first blogger conference call and decided to do so as a public service to OTB readers. I called in three minutes before the call was scheduled to start and was the first one in. Doing so required entering two different sets of pin numbers, which strikes me as ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on July 17, 2008 14:32
Obama Electoral Lead Widens as National Lead Shrinks
Radley Balko notes a "strange dichotomy" in the election polls: Obama's lead in the national head-to-head polls is narrowing at the same time his Electoral College numbers based on state-by-state polls is widening. Sure enough, that's the case. Here's the RealClearPolitics snapshot: Here's the current Electoral College map from electoralvote.com, which has the race at Obama 320 - McCain 204 - ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on July 15, 2008 08:56
2008 Electoral College Maps
Stephen Green has gotten decidedly ahead of the curve, noodling out some Electoral College scenarios for a McCain-Obama matchup in November. He figures 41 states are already in the bag for one party, meaning the race starts as a virtual tie of 229 for the GOP and 227 for the Democrats. That means a best case scenario for McCain at ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on February 26, 2008 13:16
