Can the Polls Be Trusted?

It never fails that, as Election Day draws close, the supporters of the candidate trailing in the polls start telling us that the polls aren't accurate.  Part of this is Pauline Kaelism, with most people associating with likeminded people and therefore floored that more than half the country could possibly prefer the other guy when everyone they know supports their ...

McCain Takes Lead After Convention Bounce

John McCain is now leading or tied with Barack Obama in every national survey conducted after the Republican Convention: Let's presume that the 10 point lead in Gallup is a wild outlier unless and until we see anything like that result in other polls. One presumes this bounce is primarily a reaction to the choice of Sarah Palin as the VP choice ...

Race Still Tied After Conventions

The presidential race was essentially tied going into the party conventions.  As expected, Barack Obama got a small bounce, somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 points, from the Democratic convention.  As expected, McCain is getting a bounce from his convention.  The wild card factor, the announcement of Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate and her subsequent convention speech, seems thus ...

Obama’s Convention Bounce

Team Obama is shrewdly lowering expectations, saying they may well not get any bounce at all from their convention. That, of course, would be a first. Yesterday, when Gallup's poll showed a 3 point uptick in their rolling average, I said that it could either be an actual bounce or random fluctuation caused by sampling error. Now, though, we're ...

Obama Gets ‘Big Bounce’ in Gallup Poll

In the first poll since the start of the Democratic convention, Gallup gives Barack Obama what RealClearPolitics calls "a big bounce," taking a six point lead over his rival, John McCain. Democratic candidate Barack Obama has gained ground in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and now leads Republican John McCain among registered voters by ...