Exit Polls Lousy Predictors
Somebody, whether Drudge or some other site, will likely leak the election results sometime this afternoon. While they're impossible to ignore, you should do exactly that. Rasmussen reminds us: The bottom line is that in every state we polled--Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia-- Democrats are a lot more eager to take exit polls than Republicans. In five of the ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on November 4, 2008 09:30
Election Prediction: Obama 325, McCain 213 (Updated)
After nearly four years of watching this campaign unfold, it's about to wrap up. There are another thirty-six hours of so of campaigning left and probably no more significant polls to be released. So, it's time to go on the record and predict the outcome. Others' Projections: An Obama Rout RealClearPolitics: Obama 353, McCain 185 (with Tossups) Dave Leip's Atlas: Obama 318, McCain ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on November 3, 2008 07:25
The Campaign Spot on National Review Online
Jim Geraghty sees some hope for McCain in Pennsylvania: Mason Dixon's poll putting McCain within 4 percent in Pennsylvania was crazy talk, right? Had to be an outlier, right? Well, Strategic Vision puts Obama's lead at 5 percent. (I can only imagine the hate mail they're going to get.) Rasmussen had the margin at 13 percent in early October, and put ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on October 31, 2008 12:46
McCain More Trusted on Economy, Losing
A new Rasmussen poll finds that voters trust John McCain more than Barack Obama on taxes (47%to 45%) and on "economic issues" more generally (48% to 47%). These numbers are, of course, within the margin of error. They do, however, represent a reversal of a trend and may indicate that the "Joe the Plumber" and "spreading the wealth around" message ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on October 30, 2008 07:16
Palin More Popular Than Obama and McCain
A new Rasmussen poll has Sarah Palin viewed favorably by 58 percent of likely voter respondents, compared with the 57 percent favorables that both John McCain and Barack Obama enjoy. Yes, that's a statistical tie but it's pretty impressive considering that 67 percent of the country had never heard of her a week ago. Not surprisingly, there's a strong partisan breakdown, ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on September 5, 2008 13:11
Obama’s Convention Bounce
Team Obama is shrewdly lowering expectations, saying they may well not get any bounce at all from their convention. That, of course, would be a first. Yesterday, when Gallup's poll showed a 3 point uptick in their rolling average, I said that it could either be an actual bounce or random fluctuation caused by sampling error. Now, though, we're ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on August 29, 2008 10:38
Obama Gets ‘Big Bounce’ in Gallup Poll
In the first poll since the start of the Democratic convention, Gallup gives Barack Obama what RealClearPolitics calls "a big bounce," taking a six point lead over his rival, John McCain. Democratic candidate Barack Obama has gained ground in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and now leads Republican John McCain among registered voters by ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on August 28, 2008 14:57
Americans Want Government Speech Control
A plurality of Americans want "government [to] require all radio and television stations to offer equal amounts of conservative and liberal political commentary" and nearly a third believe even privately owned blogs should have that requirement, Rasmussen reports. Nearly half of Americans (47%) believe the government should require all radio and television stations to offer equal amounts of conservative and liberal ...Posted in Outside The Beltway | OTB on August 15, 2008 07:48
