Election Prediction Winners

I've been waiting to hand out recognition for correctly predicting the Electoral map until all states have been decided.  Missouri still hasn't been called, although it's likely to fall into McCain's camp.  North Carolina has been called for Obama, who also picked up one elector in Nebraska, the first time either Maine or Nebraska has actually split its delegation despite  ...

Election Postmortem: The Polls Were Right

The country has elected Barack Obama as president and broken the recent cycle of close contests decided by one state.  The Democrats have expanded their margins in the House and Senate but with less of a landslide than many predicted and have thus been denied the fabled "filibuster-proof" majority. [caption id="attachment_27069" align="aligncenter" width="500" caption="Barack Obama victory speech family photo. (AFP/Getty Images)"][/caption] The ...

Could McCain Win Minnesota?

Minnesotan Ed Morrisey got an email from Team McCain informing him that the state is "a dead heat" based on a Survey USA poll.  Ed then cites some research that Obama is actually dragging Al Franken's numbers down in the state and muses, "If McCain wins Minnesota, that puts a major dent in Obama’s presidential aspirations." Certainly, another 10 Electoral Votes ...

Election Prediction: Obama 325, McCain 213 (Updated)

After nearly four years of watching this campaign unfold, it's about to wrap up.  There are another thirty-six hours of so of campaigning left and probably no more significant polls to be released.  So, it's time to go on the record and predict the outcome. Others' Projections:  An Obama Rout RealClearPolitics: Obama 353, McCain 185 (with Tossups) Dave Leip's Atlas: Obama 318, McCain ...

1 in 7 Voters Persuadable

A new poll claims that a whopping 14 percent of likely voters think they may still change their minds in the five days remaining before the election. One in seven, or 14 percent, can't decide or back a candidate but might switch, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll of likely voters released Friday. Who are they? They look a lot like ...

Can the Polls Be Trusted?

It never fails that, as Election Day draws close, the supporters of the candidate trailing in the polls start telling us that the polls aren't accurate.  Part of this is Pauline Kaelism, with most people associating with likeminded people and therefore floored that more than half the country could possibly prefer the other guy when everyone they know supports their ...

McCain’s Final Stand

[caption id="attachment_26200" align="alignright" width="297" caption="RealClearPolitics summary for 15 OCT 08: Electoral College blowout?"][/caption] Tonight's third and final debate between John McCain and Barack Obama is the last scheduled opportunity for the candidates to make an impression on the voters.  Election Day is less than three weeks away and, by the looks of things, McCain needs a miracle. According to the poll ...

Obama Breaking Away in Electoral Vote Race

CNN's Alex Mooney consults his network's "poll of polls" and finds that, although nearly 60 million Americans watched last Friday's debate between John McCain and Barack Obama, the race remains unchanged. The new polls are bad news for McCain, who with only five weeks until Election Day is quickly running out of opportunities to shake up the race for the ...

Killing the Electoral College?

McCain-Palin currently have a very slim lead over Obama-Biden in virtually every national poll (see RealClearPolitics and Pollster.com).  The Electoral College is too close to call. RCP has it 273-265 for Obama (without toss-ups) while Electoral-Vote.com has it 257-247 for McCain with Virginia and Pennsylvania too close to call. Obviously, there's still a lot of campaigning to do and dramatic events ...

Race Still Tied After Conventions

The presidential race was essentially tied going into the party conventions.  As expected, Barack Obama got a small bounce, somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 points, from the Democratic convention.  As expected, McCain is getting a bounce from his convention.  The wild card factor, the announcement of Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate and her subsequent convention speech, seems thus ...