Repair and upgrading of existing homes. Are existing home owners upgrading their properties? I've seen lots of repair and construction (like a new roof or a room addition) going on here in MPLS and more construction starts every month. Granted, the summer building season is almost over, so most construction will not be obvious, but it seems to be continuing. Doesn't this point to a strong economy?

Seasonal trends in retail sales. I've found that retail sales seems to decrease at the end of summer. After the summer sales period is over and following the short back to school sales drive, retail sales will slow for a few months until the winter shopping drive occurs (Christmas). Sales will slow again until spring when sales will pick up. That's my experience anyways.

The Back to School effect. During the summer, tens of thousands of kids are out spending money. These kids, mostly in the 10 to 18 year old range, spend a lot of money during summer break. These kids still spend money during school season, but that spending is a lot less then during summer break. That's something every parent knows. Kids like to have fun during the summer and that means revenue to those business's that tailor to those kids. A drop in retail sales during school season is not a indication of a weak economy, it's an indication of a large portion of the consumer base doing something other than spending money. Do any economists include this data in their studies?

Personally, I don't see any real threat to our economy in the near future. I think the economy will slow a bit in the immediate future, but it always does that during the winter months so I don't think it's anything to worry about.

That's my two cents worth anyways. (You get a lot for two cents)

So I would want to see the number of houses transferring in context to other points in history, adjusted for population changes (including aging), economic factors etc.

Try here.

If the Midwest is defined as Michigan, then it absolutely is lagging the nation in terms of unemployment. The rest, not so much.

So I would want to see the number of houses transferring in context to other points in history, adjusted for population changes (including aging), economic factors etc.

Lol economy is OK in some places. But, not looking good in most. Bad and getting worse in the Midwest -not good for Repubs this fall. Fuel prices were too high for too long to recover quickly, my thoughts anyway.

Does the Midwest suffer from greater unemployment than the nation is averaging? What indicators can you provide that the Midwest is getting worse?

I know from talking to friends in manufacturing that the unreasonable high energy prices this year will cause them to have a down year.

to indicate a DECREASE in sales tax collections!!

A question for Mr. Leamer: Don't those consumers living in the larger homes want to furnish them?

All of this looks like material selectively chosen to support a preconceived notion. But hey, Stephen Green will be glad he's no longer the only person peddling deflation.