Comments on: Tensions Mounting Over North Korean Launch

By: Dave Schuler

Dave Schuler — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 17:21:24 +0000

We're in substantial agreement on this, Bernard. I don't think this should gives us any special reason for concern either on our own behalf or geopolitically. I have no problem with our staying involved as long as it is, as has been claimed, gathering data only.

By: Bernard Finel

Bernard Finel — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 16:59:07 +0000

I believe conventional wisdom is that "Shahab-3D" is based on No-Dong A and is being tested independently, though ultimately perhaps being incorporated as a third stage booster. I think that we've seen one picture of what might be a Shahab-3D, and there is a ton of debate over whether it is a stand-alone IRBM, a third stage for a TD-2/Shahab-5/6, or planned as a satellite launch vehicle.

The point though is this... there is a ton of uncertainty about everything except: Neither Iran nor North Korea has yet to test a missile with intercontinental range. The worry with the current test is that North Korea is about to do so.

Yes, Iran can strike Israel and North Korea can strike Japan... but since Israel is a nuclear state and Japan can take care of itself, I don't see that circumstance as creating imperatives for U.S. action. If the North Koreans test an ICBM, I will certainly have some thoughts about that, but those are, at this juncture, premature.

By: Dave Schuler

Dave Schuler — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 16:40:40 +0000

I've also read some speculation that the Iranian launch vehicle was a Shahab-3D, based on a TD-2.

By: Bernard Finel

Bernard Finel — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 16:13:16 +0000

As I see things the North Korean and Iranian missile development plans are extremely intimately related. One plan, actually, with two testers.

Maybe, though I don't think that publicly available information supports quite as strong a connection as you are suggesting.

Also, even though media reports called the Iranian missile a "long-range" missile.... it wasn't. Shahab-3 with a range of 1,200ish miles, which is basically a TD-1... which North Korea has successfully tested several times.

The issue with NK now is whether they can actually get a TD-2 off the pad... and in particular whether they can get 3rd stage ignition. So, the missile tests might be connected, in some way I guess, but I think that reaches beyond current intelligence estimates. TD-2 is equivalent to rumored Shahab-5/6, which are, as you know, a source of much controversy since the main public info about Shahab-5/6 comes from public statements by Israeli sources.

By: The Glittering Eye » Blog Archive » Foreign Policy Blogging at OTB

The Glittering Eye » Blog Archive » Foreign Policy Blogging at OTB — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 15:36:49 +0000

[...] morning I’ve published two foreign policy posts at Outside the Beltway. The first is a short recap of the events that have led up to the tense waiting for North Korea’s satellite launch or [...]

By: DC Loser

DC Loser — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 15:03:33 +0000

Dave - your observation about North Korean and Iranian missiles/rockets are spot on.

By: Dave Schuler

Dave Schuler — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 14:22:33 +0000

I'm not panicked over it. I don't think there's any real threat to us for the foreseeable future. The North Koreans may be able to conduct tests and even launch a test satellite but I doubt they can throw much of a payload as far as Hawaii let alone the continental U. S.

The Japanese certainly seem to be concerned. As I see things the North Korean and Iranian missile development plans are extremely intimately related. One plan, actually, with two testers. Since the Iranian satellite launch of a few months ago seems to have succeeded, I wouldn't be surprised if whatever the North Koreans do is successful (from their point of view, of course), too.

By: Bernard Finel

Bernard Finel — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 14:04:33 +0000

The last NK missile test blew up on the launch pad. Let's see how this one turns out before getting too panicky. North Korea seems able to produce a longer-range missile about once every three years. Given their half-assed nuclear test in 2006 -- basically, they only got a partial reaction and it produced less than a 1 kt blast (by some estimates it was a 0.2 kt blast)... I think they probably have a long ways to go before they can produce a reliable warhead even if they have a reliable missile (which they don't seem to yet).

In the meantime, our mid-course missile defense, though deployed prematurely in a half-assed fashion by the Bush Administration is actually ahead of the curve vis-a-vis the North Korean threat.

In short... I am not losing sleep over this.