Comments on: Zogby: Kerry 322, Bush 216

By: Johnny Walker Red

Johnny Walker Red — Fri, 08 Oct 2004 18:31:03 +0000

Don't believe anybody who says that Tennessee is in play. It isn't.

By: Simon World

Simon World — Fri, 08 Oct 2004 09:48:48 +0000

Enemablog After a sabbatical (and just in time for Shabbat) I've resurrected the weekly linkefst to various interesting links from the wider blogosphere, as promised. Enjoy your weekend... * Where's Bill? As Paul says, it's like a ghost town in there. * There...

By: ken Wheeler

ken Wheeler — Fri, 08 Oct 2004 06:57:59 +0000

"And this, of course, doesnât even get into the question of potential anti-Bush bias, given that his brother is head of the anti-Bush Arab-American Institute."

This does. Zogby is the house pollster for those liberal rags, the New York Post, and the Wall Street Journal, not to mention Reuters, the largest news agency in the world, all of whom care about both his methodology and bias.

Anyway, it's harder and harder to find pro-bush bias, as the depths of his mendacity and incompetence are revealed on a daily basis. Pity, he's such a compassionate uniter, and what do those Arabs know anyway?

By: Matthew Ryan

Matthew Ryan — Thu, 07 Oct 2004 21:32:02 +0000

"And this, of course, doesnât even get into the question of potential anti-Bush bias, given that his brother is head of the anti-Bush Arab-American Institute"

Nor the fact that Zogby called the election for Kerry back in May. Do you think he might be a little out on a limb?

By: bryan

bryan — Thu, 07 Oct 2004 21:26:13 +0000

Actually, the zogby poll isn't quite the "online poll" that we are thinking it is, but the methodology suggests it still suffers from big problems (weighting, self-selection) that make it less than useful. Of course, most of the polls that are out these days are less than useful, so...

By: Dean Esmay

Dean Esmay — Thu, 07 Oct 2004 21:08:34 +0000

At this point there is simply no question that Bush completely screwed up in the first debate, and is paying a terrible price for it.

I don't feel sorry for him.

By: Al

Al — Thu, 07 Oct 2004 20:06:36 +0000

While my instinct is to dismiss this as an outlier, Zogby does, as Barry notes, have an excellent track record.

When it comes to state-level polls like these, that's just plain false. Zogby may have done OK with a national poll in 2000, but he was by far the worst pollster at the state level in 2002. And you don't have to take my word for it, the National Council on Public Polls did a survey of pollsters: http://www.ncpp.org/2002SenGovPoll/2002ElectionPolls.html

When it comes to state level polls, Zogby is just plain bad.

(And this, of course, doesn't even get into the question of potential anti-Bush bias, given that his brother is head of the anti-Bush Arab-American Institute.)

By: Dummocrats.com

Dummocrats.com — Thu, 07 Oct 2004 19:54:09 +0000

Zogby: Kerry 322, Bush 216 (we're not buying it)
Zogby: Kerry 322, Bush 216 (we're not buying it)

By: King of Fools

King of Fools — Thu, 07 Oct 2004 19:52:15 +0000

Linkagery
Joe Carter boils down the remaning contestants for the "Coalition of the Remaining." Hugh Hewitt explains why the President endures debates. Outside the Beltway shows promising numbers for Kerry. (Although they are from Zogby Interactive, whi...

By: ProfessorBainbridge.com

ProfessorBainbridge.com — Thu, 07 Oct 2004 19:05:13 +0000

Electoral College Count
James Joyner has a roundup of current projections. In short, they're all over the map (heh).

By: Ron

Ron — Thu, 07 Oct 2004 18:05:32 +0000

I had a hard time continuing to read after "based on online polling..."

By: Barry Ritholtz

Barry Ritholtz — Thu, 07 Oct 2004 16:39:00 +0000

The table at the WSJ site shows five of the states credited to the Dems -- Arkanasas, Tennessee, Ohio, Nevada, Florida -- with a Kerry lead of less than the margin of error (MOE) -- that suggests the race is tighter than it initially appears in this study.

Back out the states within the MOE, and we pull out 68 electoral votes for Kerry (AK, FL, NV, OH, WI) and 22 electoral votes for Bush (MO, TN), for a total 254 to 194, in Kerry's favor. Much tighter than the initial WSJ overview makes it appear . . .

By: Attila Girl

Attila Girl — Thu, 07 Oct 2004 16:15:01 +0000

Can't buy it. Arkansas? Florida? New Mexico? No.