The Campaign Spot on National Review Online
 |
James Joyner | Friday, October 31, 2008 |
Jim Geraghty sees some hope for McCain in Pennsylvania:
Mason Dixon’s poll putting McCain within 4 percent in Pennsylvania was crazy talk, right? Had to be an outlier, right? Well, Strategic Vision puts Obama’s lead at 5 percent. (I can only imagine the hate mail they’re going to get.) Rasmussen had the margin at 13 percent in early October, and put Obama’s lead at 7 percent on Monday.
I don’t know if the state is tightening enough to put McCain over the top. But right now, putting resources in that state doesn’t look like such a wild gamble at all.
Pennsylvania is Team McCain’s only hope for snagging a significant Blue State — i.e., one that went for Kerry or Gore — and overcome some sure losses in Red States. Unfortunately, Mason Dixon and Rasmussen are looking like outliers. Here’s the RCP summary of all the major polls in the Keystone State commissioned over the last week or so:
No poll since April has shown a McCain lead and no polls since September has shown a tie. And the trend is decidedly in Obama’s direction.
Putting resources into Pennsylvania is likely McCain’s best shot. It’s decidedly a long shot, though.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
Follow James on FriendFeed | Twitter | Digg
- The Campaign Spot on National Review Online
- Could McCain Win Minnesota?
- Polls: McCain Ahead in Key Blue States
- McCain Lead Growing in New Hampshire
- Election Postmortem: The Polls Were Right
- Potomac Primary Predictions
- Race Still Tied After Conventions
- Election Prediction: Obama 325, McCain 213 (Updated)
- Clinton Leading/Edging/Trailing in Ohio by 9/4/2 Points
- Palin More Popular Than Obama and McCain
- Swine flu is more popular than Dodd
- Paradox of Choice Paradoxically Untrue
- Private Forecasters Support Claim That Stimulus Worked
- Entertaining Kids During the Holidays
- How Much Will Escalation Cost?
- No Party of No
- Thought of the Day
- Queer International Studies
- OTB Latenight – r.e.m.
- Krugman on the Debt and Deficits
(1) Strategic Vision is a GOP-partisan firm, which is why RCP won't aggregate them in their PA average.
(2) Rasmussen's sample size is the smallest in that poll, with a correspondingly high margin of error. Also, if I'm not mistaken, Rasmussen doesn't poll cell phones.
I'm sure that McCain's firmed up his support in PA, but except for the suspect SV poll, Obama's support seems pretty steady ... and almost certainly over 50%.
Comments are Closed
