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	<title>Comments on: The N.S.A.&#8217;s Math Problem</title>
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		<title>By: Dan Keldsen</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-83834</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan Keldsen</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 May 2006 13:39:12 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&lt;strong&gt;The N.S.A.&#039;s Math Problem (New York Times)...&lt;/strong&gt;

Last week, there was an op-ed piece in the New York Times entitled &quot;The N.S.A.&#039;s Math Problem&quot; written by Jonathan David Farley, who is a science fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford. Interesting reading, and...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>The N.S.A.'s Math Problem (New York Times)...</strong></p>
<p>Last week, there was an op-ed piece in the New York Times entitled "The N.S.A.'s Math Problem" written by Jonathan David Farley, who is a science fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford. Interesting reading, and...</p>
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		<title>By: Shane</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-83574</link>
		<dc:creator>Shane</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 May 2006 16:29:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-83574</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m a journalist, and I&#039;ve covered data mining and intelligence in-depth over the years.  I&#039;m working on a piece about what else the NSA and other agencies are doing with data mining, and how it might connect to the NSA&#039;s terrorist surveillance program.  I find this thread quite fascinating, and would like to invite some of the people who&#039;ve posted comments here to get in touch with me if they feel they can add something to my piece.  I&#039;m particularly interested in hearing from people who&#039;ve worked with data mining and related tools, particularly in a government setting.  I would like to talk to experts who can speak from an informed perspective about such matters.  Many thanks.  Shane Harris  National Journal sharris@nationaljournal.com</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I'm a journalist, and I've covered data mining and intelligence in-depth over the years.  I'm working on a piece about what else the NSA and other agencies are doing with data mining, and how it might connect to the NSA's terrorist surveillance program.  I find this thread quite fascinating, and would like to invite some of the people who've posted comments here to get in touch with me if they feel they can add something to my piece.  I'm particularly interested in hearing from people who've worked with data mining and related tools, particularly in a government setting.  I would like to talk to experts who can speak from an informed perspective about such matters.  Many thanks.  Shane Harris  National Journal <a href="mailto:sharris@nationaljournal.com">sharris@nationaljournal.com</a></p>
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		<title>By: Barry</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-83098</link>
		<dc:creator>Barry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 May 2006 13:01:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-83098</guid>
		<description>James Joyner:  &quot;Alan: Iâ??m sure that data mining taken in isolation is relatively ineffective. Iâ??m just pretty sure that weâ??re not doing it in isolation. Our intel agencies justly get plenty of criticism for various bureaucratic failings. They are not, however, manned by idiots. &quot;

They are, however, under the political authority of people who&#039;ve repeatedly demonstrated that they can&#039;t be trusted.  And after the history of the Cold War, it&#039;s pretty much proven that such programs will be used for the political purposes of the people running the programs, and certain well-connected politicians.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>James Joyner:  "Alan: Iâ??m sure that data mining taken in isolation is relatively ineffective. Iâ??m just pretty sure that weâ??re not doing it in isolation. Our intel agencies justly get plenty of criticism for various bureaucratic failings. They are not, however, manned by idiots. "</p>
<p>They are, however, under the political authority of people who've repeatedly demonstrated that they can't be trusted.  And after the history of the Cold War, it's pretty much proven that such programs will be used for the political purposes of the people running the programs, and certain well-connected politicians.</p>
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		<title>By: McGehee</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82983</link>
		<dc:creator>McGehee</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 May 2006 18:12:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82983</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Probably not, but thatâ��s pretty much a non sequitur. The data mining under discussion here is for intelligence collection, not law enforcement.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Thank you, Boyd. We do seem to keep having to remind people that the NSA isn&#039;t providing evidence for trial, but intelligence for &lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;WAGING @#$!ING WAR.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/b&gt;

And they keep failing to grasp that seemingly rather simple fact.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Probably not, but thatâ��s pretty much a non sequitur. The data mining under discussion here is for intelligence collection, not law enforcement.</p></blockquote>
<p>Thank you, Boyd. We do seem to keep having to remind people that the NSA isn't providing evidence for trial, but intelligence for <b><i>WAGING @#$!ING WAR.</i></b></p>
<p>And they keep failing to grasp that seemingly rather simple fact.</p>
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		<title>By: GroupIntel &#187; Nice Try (NSA critique)</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82930</link>
		<dc:creator>GroupIntel &#187; Nice Try (NSA critique)</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 May 2006 15:10:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82930</guid>
		<description>[...] OTB takes a similar tack. [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] OTB takes a similar tack. [...]</p>
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		<title>By: ICallMasICM</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82920</link>
		<dc:creator>ICallMasICM</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 May 2006 13:46:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82920</guid>
		<description>Whenever a client tells me they want to do some data mining my thoughts immediately go to &#039;boondoggle&#039; and &#039;bonanza&#039; and my mouth says &#039;let&#039;s discuss how I can help you with that&#039;. Data minine = gold mine for db developers, dba&#039;s, report developers, analysts, QA analysts...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Whenever a client tells me they want to do some data mining my thoughts immediately go to 'boondoggle' and 'bonanza' and my mouth says 'let's discuss how I can help you with that'. Data minine = gold mine for db developers, dba's, report developers, analysts, QA analysts...</p>
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		<title>By: Boyd</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82912</link>
		<dc:creator>Boyd</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 May 2006 11:28:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82912</guid>
		<description>Alan said:

&lt;i&gt;Data mining, IMHO, is not a legitimate use of technology for crime enforcement...&lt;/i&gt;

Probably not, but that&#039;s pretty much a non sequitur. The data mining under discussion here is for intelligence collection, not law enforcement. Folks can make all the &quot;slippery slope&quot; arguments they want, but these supposedly aggressive intelligence collection techniques are a far cry from police state tactics. They may be a precursor, and it&#039;s wise to be watchful, but it seems to me to be hysterical histrionics to look at what&#039;s going on today and say we&#039;re turning into a police state.

IMHO, of course.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alan said:</p>
<p><i>Data mining, IMHO, is not a legitimate use of technology for crime enforcement...</i></p>
<p>Probably not, but that's pretty much a non sequitur. The data mining under discussion here is for intelligence collection, not law enforcement. Folks can make all the "slippery slope" arguments they want, but these supposedly aggressive intelligence collection techniques are a far cry from police state tactics. They may be a precursor, and it's wise to be watchful, but it seems to me to be hysterical histrionics to look at what's going on today and say we're turning into a police state.</p>
<p>IMHO, of course.</p>
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		<title>By: A Blog For All</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82900</link>
		<dc:creator>A Blog For All</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 May 2006 03:36:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82900</guid>
		<description>&lt;strong&gt;About That USA Today NSA Story...&lt;/strong&gt;

The three named companies that allegedly provided information to the NSA program have been sued by the ACLU and their derivatives - for hundreds of millions of dollars in damages. Well, those companies have responded....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>About That USA Today NSA Story...</strong></p>
<p>The three named companies that allegedly provided information to the NSA program have been sued by the ACLU and their derivatives - for hundreds of millions of dollars in damages. Well, those companies have responded....</p>
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		<title>By: Maniakes</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82876</link>
		<dc:creator>Maniakes</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 May 2006 22:22:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82876</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;He found that if you naively analyzed the resulting graph, you could conclude that one of the &quot;central&quot; players was Ken Lay&#039;s ... secretary.&lt;/i&gt;

Perhaps this is why we keep catching the #3 guy in Al Qaeda?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>He found that if you naively analyzed the resulting graph, you could conclude that one of the "central" players was Ken Lay's ... secretary.</i></p>
<p>Perhaps this is why we keep catching the #3 guy in Al Qaeda?</p>
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		<title>By: Unpartisan.com Political News and Blog Aggregator</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82845</link>
		<dc:creator>Unpartisan.com Political News and Blog Aggregator</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 May 2006 19:02:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82845</guid>
		<description>&lt;strong&gt;BellSouth Says It Gave NSA No Call Records...&lt;/strong&gt;

BellSouth Corp. said Monday its &quot;thorough review&quot; found no indication it gave telephone records to t...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>BellSouth Says It Gave NSA No Call Records...</strong></p>
<p>BellSouth Corp. said Monday its "thorough review" found no indication it gave telephone records to t...</p>
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		<title>By: James Joyner</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82841</link>
		<dc:creator>James Joyner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 May 2006 18:31:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82841</guid>
		<description>Alan: Didn&#039;t mean to imply you were calling these people stupid.  Farley sure seems to think they are, though.

Ken: It&#039;s not that I&#039;m deferring to their superior knowledge; it&#039;s that I understand that, from the outside, I can&#039;t fully appreciate the program.  Is it possible that Farley&#039;s premise (it &quot;probably isnâ��t worth infringing our civil liberties for â�� because itâ��s very unlikely that the type of information one can glean from it will help us win the war on terrorism&quot;) is right?  Sure.  It&#039;s just that his analysis is based on an assumption this is happening in a vacuum.

I&#039;m not at all sure we&#039;ve learned that much from 9/11 and that the information stovepipes won&#039;t bite us in the ass again.  Bureaucracies don&#039;t change that much after one foul up.  Or ten.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alan: Didn't mean to imply you were calling these people stupid.  Farley sure seems to think they are, though.</p>
<p>Ken: It's not that I'm deferring to their superior knowledge; it's that I understand that, from the outside, I can't fully appreciate the program.  Is it possible that Farley's premise (it "probably isnâ��t worth infringing our civil liberties for â�� because itâ��s very unlikely that the type of information one can glean from it will help us win the war on terrorism") is right?  Sure.  It's just that his analysis is based on an assumption this is happening in a vacuum.</p>
<p>I'm not at all sure we've learned that much from 9/11 and that the information stovepipes won't bite us in the ass again.  Bureaucracies don't change that much after one foul up.  Or ten.</p>
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		<title>By: ken</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82839</link>
		<dc:creator>ken</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 May 2006 18:11:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82839</guid>
		<description>James, even so called smart people do incredibly stupid things. Usually, in any competitive endeavor, the market forces a correction, or else. Just look at what the brainiacs at Long Term Capital Management did for a good example of how this works.

With the NSA on the other hand there are no consequences for acting stupidly as long as people like you continue to defer to what you think is their &#039;superior&#039; knowledge. 

Beside none of this is needed for security purposes. Our various law enforcement agencies had all the information they needed to stop the attacks on 9/11, they just did not know they had it. With the lessons learned from that mistake I trust they will not be dropping the ball again when such knowledge comes their way a second time. 

The Bush domestic spying program does serve as an intimidation to all law abiding citizens however - now that we know Big Brother is listening. If that is your intent then I can see why you would support it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>James, even so called smart people do incredibly stupid things. Usually, in any competitive endeavor, the market forces a correction, or else. Just look at what the brainiacs at Long Term Capital Management did for a good example of how this works.</p>
<p>With the NSA on the other hand there are no consequences for acting stupidly as long as people like you continue to defer to what you think is their 'superior' knowledge. </p>
<p>Beside none of this is needed for security purposes. Our various law enforcement agencies had all the information they needed to stop the attacks on 9/11, they just did not know they had it. With the lessons learned from that mistake I trust they will not be dropping the ball again when such knowledge comes their way a second time. </p>
<p>The Bush domestic spying program does serve as an intimidation to all law abiding citizens however - now that we know Big Brother is listening. If that is your intent then I can see why you would support it.</p>
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		<title>By: Alan</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82838</link>
		<dc:creator>Alan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 May 2006 18:02:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82838</guid>
		<description>Hello James,

Like I said, I worked in that area.  I know exactly the kind of people who work there and I was one of them.  I did not call anyone an idiot.

The various agencies love to throw large amounts of money at experimental technology.  That is great, until it crosses the line on respecting the privacy of American citizens.

The most likely use for any large database is to investigate a person AFTER he/she has been identified as a suspect.  That should be done using warrants, court oversight, etc.

Data mining, IMHO, is not a legitimate use of technology for crime enforcement, and if the current trends continue, will eventually turn the USA into a police state.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello James,</p>
<p>Like I said, I worked in that area.  I know exactly the kind of people who work there and I was one of them.  I did not call anyone an idiot.</p>
<p>The various agencies love to throw large amounts of money at experimental technology.  That is great, until it crosses the line on respecting the privacy of American citizens.</p>
<p>The most likely use for any large database is to investigate a person AFTER he/she has been identified as a suspect.  That should be done using warrants, court oversight, etc.</p>
<p>Data mining, IMHO, is not a legitimate use of technology for crime enforcement, and if the current trends continue, will eventually turn the USA into a police state.</p>
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		<title>By: James Joyner</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82832</link>
		<dc:creator>James Joyner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 May 2006 17:45:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82832</guid>
		<description>Alan:  I&#039;m sure that data mining taken in isolation is relatively ineffective. I&#039;m just pretty sure that we&#039;re not doing it in isolation.  Our intel agencies justly get plenty of criticism for various bureaucratic failings. They are not, however, manned by idiots.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alan:  I'm sure that data mining taken in isolation is relatively ineffective. I'm just pretty sure that we're not doing it in isolation.  Our intel agencies justly get plenty of criticism for various bureaucratic failings. They are not, however, manned by idiots.</p>
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		<title>By: Alan</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/the_nsas_math_problem_/comment-page-1/#comment-82830</link>
		<dc:creator>Alan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 May 2006 17:22:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2006/05/the_nsas_math_problem_/#comment-82830</guid>
		<description>Bruce Schneier, a well-regarded security analyst, did a similar analysis on data mining in general, and reached a similar conclusion:

&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/03/data_mining_for.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/03/data_mining_for.html&lt;/a&gt;

See also this:
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/01/post_1.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/01/post_1.html&lt;/a&gt;

Having worked in that area before, I found the article to be persuasive.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bruce Schneier, a well-regarded security analyst, did a similar analysis on data mining in general, and reached a similar conclusion:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/03/data_mining_for.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/03/data_mining_for.html</a></p>
<p>See also this:<br />
<a href="http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/01/post_1.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2006/01/post_1.html</a></p>
<p>Having worked in that area before, I found the article to be persuasive.</p>
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