Add that to bitter Dems staying home, and Hillary could have a rougher time than one would think.

but it's probably more important for Hillary to secure her base and ride that to a 51/49 win in November.

If it is 51/49 in november republicans will have staged the greatest comeback outside of a rocky movie. Right now they are looking at a complete ^%$-whoopin. I mean a 65-35 kind of demolishing. Their front runners are all HATED by at least a third of the base (2/3rds in the case of Huckabee). Their national campaigns are skint. They have a butt load of races to try and defend and a ton of retirements. They have yet more scandals coming down the pipe. Iraq is about to get worse again as the surge ends and Afghanistan is trending badly. Their most likely nominee brazenly declares that we'll see more war under his watch and he wants to stay 100 years in Iraq. Their entire coalition is coming apart at the seams with bitter infighting and we've had a substantial list of republican luminaries, each with their own cult following, who have openly said they refuse to vote for McCain. Republican primaries have been busy but utterly blown away by the attendance of Dem primaries.

A recent poll suggested utah might be in play for the dems.

U.T.A.H.

...for the dems.

Now I do think a VP slot for Obama would be excellent (assuming he doesn't win the nomination).

I have been leaning Clinton, but I am starting to think that Obama does have more potential against McCain. If she wins the nomination, I really, really, really hope they work out where Obama's her running mate -- I had been hoping for Jim Webb, but it's probably more important for Hillary to secure her base and ride that to a 51/49 win in November.